{"id":9144,"date":"2023-12-18T04:50:47","date_gmt":"2023-12-18T04:50:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=9144"},"modified":"2023-12-18T04:50:47","modified_gmt":"2023-12-18T04:50:47","slug":"chinas-middle-class-battered-by-real-estate-meltdown-and-it-might-just-be-the-beginning-of-more-wealth-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=9144","title":{"rendered":"China's middle class battered by real-estate meltdown and it 'might just be the beginning of more wealth losses'"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stock investments: down 30%. Salary package: down 30%. Investment property: down 20%. As Thomas Zhou reflects on 2023, his household finances are front of mind.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cIt\u2019s just heart-breaking,\u201d the 40-year-old financial worker from Shanghai said. \u201cThe only thing that still keeps me going is the thought of keeping my job so I can support my big family.\u201d<\/p>\n

Zhou\u2019s predicament will resonate with many people in China, where slumps in the real estate and stock markets are\u00a0wiping<\/a>\u00a0away household wealth. And as the world\u2019s second-largest economy\u00a0struggles<\/a>\u00a0to regain momentum after years of Covid-19 lockdowns, there\u2019s also the growing\u00a0threat of unemployment<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Now, middle class households are being forced to rethink their money priorities, with some pulling away from investing, or selling assets to free-up liquidity.<\/p>\n

At the heart of the decline in family wealth is China\u2019s\u00a0real estate meltdown<\/a>, which having a pervasive effect on a society where 70% of family assets are tied up in property. Every 5% decline in home prices will wipe out 19 trillion yuan ($2.7 trillion) in housing wealth, according to Bloomberg Economics.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt might just be the beginning of more wealth losses in coming years,\u201d said\u00a0Eric Zhu, an economist with Bloomberg Economics. \u201cUnless there\u2019s a big bull market, small gains in financial wealth are unlikely to offset losses in housing wealth.\u201d<\/p>\n

While China\u2019s official data show just\u00a0a mild drop<\/a>\u00a0in its existing home prices, evidence from property agents and private data providers indicate declines of at\u00a0least 15%<\/a>\u00a0in prime areas in its biggest cities.<\/p>\n

The housing sector\u2019s value may shrink to about 16% of China\u2019s gross domestic product by 2026 from around 20% of GDP currently, according to Bloomberg Economics. This would put about\u00a05 million<\/a>\u00a0people, or about 1% of urban workforce, at the risk of unemployment or reduced incomes.<\/p>\n

Rainy Days<\/h2>\n

Financial investments offer little respite. Chinese shares\u00a0underperformed<\/a>\u00a0emerging-market peers by the widest margin since at least 1998 earlier this month. Mutual funds were\u00a0in the red<\/a>\u00a0as of the third quarter. Yields on banks\u2019 wealth management products remain subdued and deposit rates have seen\u00a0three reductions<\/a>\u00a0in the past year.<\/p>\n

The $2.9 trillion trust industry, where wealthy Chinese investors have sought high returns from products sold by loosely regulated shadow banks, is\u00a0showing cracks<\/a>, with one recent scandal potentially involving\u00a0tens of billions<\/a>\u00a0of dollars in losses.<\/p>\n

Net worth per adult in China slid 2.2% to $75,731 in 2022, UBS said in its August global wealth report, while total assets per adult fell for the first time since 2000 as non-financial holdings shrank due to the housing market difficulties.<\/p>\n

Media worker Echo Huang watched as the value of her investment property in Ningbo, Zhejiang province fell about 1 million yuan from its 2019 peak. Now, she considers herself lucky to have sold it in May before prices dropped further.<\/p>\n

Huang gave the majority of the proceeds from the property sale to her parents for their retirement savings, and put the rest in demand deposits and money market funds that allow real-time redemptions. She ruled out stock investments after her current holdings more than erased all gains since 2018.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy company is struggling to survive, so who knows if I might get paid less or even laid off one day,\u201d said the 39-year-old. \u201cMy main goal is stability in my assets, and I want to keep enough liquidity on hand.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wealth Protection<\/h2>\n

Even high-net-worth-individuals are turning more conservative, according to a joint survey by China Merchants Bank<\/a> Co. and Bain & Co. The number of the cohort citing \u201cwealth protection\u201d among their major money goals jumped significantly in 2023, and mentions of \u201cwealth creation\u201d decreased.<\/p>\n

Peter Bao, who works at a big technology firm in Beijing, is following a prudent investment strategy.<\/p>\n

His stock holdings, mostly in US-listed Chinese shares, at one point halved to the equivalent of about 5 million yuan from a late 2020 peak. Over the past two years he\u2019s shifted part of his assets to money market funds and fixed income products that require less analysis. He\u2019s hoping that he\u2019ll be able to withstand short-term volatility and potential losses.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere isn\u2019t a single moment without anxiety and doubt, but there are no better options,\u201d Bao said. \u201cAlso I need to focus on my job to protect my source of income, so I really can\u2019t spare more time to explore other investments that are reliable.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Subscribe to the new Fortune CEO Weekly Europe newsletter to get corner office insights on the biggest business stories in Europe. Sign up<\/a> for free.<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock investments: down 30%. Salary package: down 30%. Investment property: down 20%. As Thomas Zhou reflects on 2023, his household finances are front of mind. \u201cIt\u2019s just heart-breaking,\u201d the 40-year-old financial worker from Shanghai said. \u201cThe only thing that still keeps me going is the thought of keeping my job so I can support my […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":202,"featured_media":9145,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nChina's middle class battered by real-estate meltdown 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investments: down 30%. Salary package: down 30%. Investment property: down 20%. As Thomas Zhou reflects on 2023, his household finances are front of mind. \u201cIt\u2019s just heart-breaking,\u201d the 40-year-old financial worker from Shanghai said. \u201cThe only thing that still keeps me going is the thought of keeping my job so I can support my…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GettyImages-1242296383-e1702860367445.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/202"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9144"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9144\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}