{"id":8229,"date":"2023-10-20T21:35:54","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T21:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/the-housing-winter-arrives-early-as-existing-home-sales-crash-to-great-recession-levels-and-the-long-feared-deep-freeze-sets-in\/"},"modified":"2023-10-20T21:35:54","modified_gmt":"2023-10-20T21:35:54","slug":"the-housing-winter-arrives-early-as-existing-home-sales-crash-to-great-recession-levels-and-the-long-feared-deep-freeze-sets-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=8229","title":{"rendered":"The housing winter arrives early as existing home sales crash to Great Recession levels and the long-feared \u2018deep freeze\u2019 sets in"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After a long, hot summer that saw mortgage rates creep ever higher, October has brought an early winter for the housing market. Existing home sales dropped a stunning 15% in September on a year-over-year basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors<\/a>. That\u2019s the lowest figure in 13 years, since 2010, when the world economy but particularly the U.S. housing market were struggling to pull out of\u00a0 the Great Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n

\n

Contributing factors to the continuous decline in home transactions include surging mortgage rates (which just hit 8% this week<\/a>\u2014a record in the 21st century), low inventory levels<\/a> and home prices that refuse to stop rising<\/a>. In other words, there aren\u2019t enough homes to buy, money isn\u2019t cheap anymore and the ones for sale are too rich for most homebuyers\u2019 blood.<\/p>\n

Indeed, existing-home sales prices topped $306,000, a 5% increase since the year began, according to the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability<\/a> continue to hamper home sales,\u201d NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. \u201cThe Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.\u201d The Fed has raised rates several times this year, with chair Jerome Powell arming his \u201chigher for longer<\/a>\u201d stance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Declining housing inventory levels also contribute to the drop in housing transactions. Housing inventory is down 8.1% from this time last year, according to NAR. Some real-estate experts and economists argue that housing affordability is even worse now than during 2008, when a damaging downturn in the U.S. housing market set off the dominoes that became the Great Financial Crisis that defined a whole decade economically\u2014and in some ways, our current predicament.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In 2010, the last time existing home sales were so low, the global economy was on life support and the Fed slashed interest rates down to zero to revive the flatlining patient\u2014fueling an \u201ceverything bubble<\/a>\u201d that inflated all kinds of assets along the way, not the least housing. The zero-rate regime persisted until the highest inflation in 40 years<\/a> surprised many economists and prompted the massive series of rate hikes that have brought us to the once-unthinkable 8% mortgage.<\/p>\n

Some onlookers saw what was coming, for instance Zillow<\/a>, which warned in May that housing would enter a \u201cdeep freeze<\/a>\u201d if the debt limit stand-off failed to resolve and America defaulted, as that would send mortgage rates up to 8%. Of course, the default was averted, but here we have arrived at 8% mortgage rates anyway. But this isn\u2019t like 2008, or 2010 again. It\u2019s time for a 1980s history lesson.<\/p>\n

Back to the 1980s future<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The housing market today isn\u2019t identical to that of the \u201880s, but it\u2019s pretty close. In a lot of ways, millennials are being forced to follow the housing journey of their boomer parents as they face a frozen, unaffordable market with rising interest rates, as noted recently by both BofA Research economist Jeseo Park<\/a> and by First American chief economist Mark Fleming<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Essentially, millennials are a giant generation all collectively coming of homebuying age nearly simultaneously\u2014just like their boomer parents in the 1980s. They\u2019re the \u201cbiggest share of the \u201chomebuying pie<\/a>,\u201d as Redfin puts it, purchasing about 60% of homes bought with mortgages during the past few years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Plus, rising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation is strikingly similar to the \u201980s. Back then, Fed chair Paul Volcker fought inflation through aggressive interest rate hikes with the average 30-year fixed mortgage peaking at about 18% by late 1981. Sound familiar? Current Fed chair Jerome Powell has set the tone for the most aggressive global hiking of rates<\/a> in the modern era. And in due course, this week, mortgage rates hit 8%, the highest it\u2019s been in more than 20 years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

All things considered, home sales activity also plummeted from 1978 to 1982. Existing-home sales dropped 50% during that time period, according to the Office of Policy Development and Research.And while we haven\u2019t seen home sales activity levels this low since the 2000s, the housing market more closely mimics that of the 80s, according to a report<\/a> published this week Fortune 500 financial services company First American<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cToday\u2019s housing market isn\u2019t anything like the housing market of the mid-2000s,\u201d First American\u2019s Fleming wrote in a Tuesday report titled \u201c1980s D\u00e9j\u00e0 Vu for the Housing Market<\/a>.\u201d \u201cThe housing market today is not overbuilt, nor is it driven by loose lending standards, sub-prime mortgages, or homeowners who are highly leveraged.\u201d<\/p>\n

While some economic factors are stronger today than they were during the GFC, housing affordability is undeniably worse.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile housing and more generally consumer fundamentals are in a much stronger position today, affordability for the incremental buyer is worse than it was at the peak in 2006 before the crash,\u201d Roger Ashworth, a managing director at Goldman Sachs<\/a>, wrote in a credit strategy research paper<\/a> released last week.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And he\u2019s not hopeful we\u2019ll see home prices drop anytime soon: \u201cAbsent any negative shocks to the broader economy that would either boost excess supply of homes on the market or fuel an uptick in unemployment, we continue to expect home prices to rise at a slow pace.\u201d In fact, he predicts we\u2019ll see home prices rise by 1.8% by the end of the year, with a 3.5% increase by the end of 2024.<\/p>\n

Looking at more recent housing inventory data makes the inventory issue even more stark. Between September 2018 and September 2023, the average number of homes on the market dropped a whopping 60% to fewer than 700,000 active listings, according to Realtor.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnlike the turn of the millennium, house prices today are rising alongside mortgage rates, primarily due to low inventory,\u201d Sam Khater, Freddie Mac\u2019s chief economist, said in a statement released Sept. 29. \u201cThese headwinds are causing both buyers and sellers to hold out for better circumstances.\u201d<\/p>\n

But with the development that home sales transactions are at their lowest level in the past 13 years coupled with century-high mortgage rates of 8%, many real estate experts and economists aren\u2019t hopeful that affordability constraints will let up soon.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Out of fear of losing their lower interest rates, current homeowners are resistant to putting their homes on the market, ultimately leading to the abysmal inventory levels\u2014leaving fewer and fewer properties exchanging hands. Indeed, more than 90% of existing homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below 6%, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American<\/a>, previously told Fortune<\/em>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThese homeowners do not have a financial incentive to sell,\u201d Kushi says. \u201cThe combination of reduced affordability and an even stronger rate lock-in effect suppresses home sales because you can\u2019t buy what\u2019s not for sale, even if you can afford it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a long, hot summer that saw mortgage rates creep ever higher, October has brought an early winter for the housing market. Existing home sales dropped a stunning 15% in September on a year-over-year basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors. That\u2019s the lowest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":8230,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nThe housing winter arrives early as existing home sales crash to Great Recession levels and the long-feared \u2018deep freeze\u2019 sets in | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Zillow warned in May that housing would enter a "deep freeze" if mortgage rates hit 8%. 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Lake","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=49"},"uagb_comment_info":1,"uagb_excerpt":"After a long, hot summer that saw mortgage rates creep ever higher, October has brought an early winter for the housing market. Existing home sales dropped a stunning 15% in September on a year-over-year basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors. That\u2019s the lowest…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/49"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8229\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}