{"id":19015,"date":"2026-10-27T11:05:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T11:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=19015"},"modified":"2026-10-27T11:05:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T11:05:48","slug":"why-investors-will-likely-ignore-the-81-billion-hole-that-anthropic-must-dig-itself-out-of","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=19015","title":{"rendered":"Why investors will likely ignore the $81 billion hole that Anthropic must dig itself out of"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Can Anthropic generate revenues so gigantic that they far outpace the huge spending on compute that its leaders acknowledge is coming? So far, the S-1 shows surprisingly excellent bedrock performance, <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Shawn Tully reports<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Revenues exploded 13x from $1.3 billion to $16.3 billion in H1 2026, over the same period last year. But the company\u2019s income statement shows a staggering loss of $80.7 billion. The vast bulk of that deficit arose from changes in the \u201cfair value\u201d of convertible notes and other non-cash charges.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a visualization of that (below). Anthropic\u2019s quarterly revenues (blue) are growing and keeping pace with its operating expenses (red). But its GAAP net income (yellow) shows steep losses increasing over time. However, if you back out the non-cash charges for the changing value of convertible notes, then Anthropic\u2019s net income losses (green) look manageable. In fact, the company actually garnered adjusted operating income of $1.6 billion for the first six months of 2026, for a 9%+ margin.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

Anthropic Is Going Public. Here’s What Its Filing Reveals<\/span><\/a> | Fortune Daily<\/span><\/p>\n

Microsoft offers buyouts to nearly 30% of workforce in ongoing AI shift<\/span><\/a> – Sebastian Herrera<\/span><\/p>\n

How is P&G\u2019s CEO getting inflation-weary shoppers to pay more? It starts with cashmere-like diapers<\/span><\/a> – Phil Wahba<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump promised 300,000 tons of beef imports at lower tariff rates to reduce grocery costs. Instead, shipments have lagged and prices haven\u2019t budged<\/span><\/a> – Sasha Rogelberg<\/span><\/p>\n

Meet Wizz Air\u2019s CEO\u2014his father was jailed under Soviet rule. Now, he\u2019s on $4.4 million a year and would \u2018rather keep building than sit on a beach\u2019<\/span><\/a> – Orianna Rosa Royle<\/span><\/p>\n

Billionaire Uber cofounder Travis Kalanick moved to Texas\u2014dodging a possible $180 million hit from California\u2019s billionaire tax<\/span><\/a> – Sydney Lake<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018Why do we value a Mars bar more than life-saving medicine?\u2019 Sandoz CEO calls for level playing field with cheap Chinese antibiotics<\/span><\/a> – Sam Forsdick<\/span><\/p>\n

Pentagon orders bases to plan for 90 days without the grid as Britain urges families to stockpile food and water<\/span><\/a> – Bilin Lin<\/span><\/p>\n

THE DOWNSIDE<\/h3>\n

AI has produced \u2018zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech\u2019\u2014Apollo<\/b><\/h2>\n

AI is dividing companies into haves and have-nots. And the haves are the tech companies, <\/span>according to Apollo Global Management\u2019s Torsten Sl\u00f8k<\/span><\/a>. \u201cDespite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech,\u201d he said in a recent blog.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201cRevenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&P 493,\u201d he wrote. \u201cProfit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but are flat for the S&P 493.\u201d The same effect\u2014or lack thereof\u2014shows up when you look at productivity, too.<\/span><\/p>\n

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But why?<\/span><\/p>\n

A couple of macro reasons explain why AI’s positive effects are conspicuous by their absence in non-tech companies. Corporate investment in AI is actually crowding out investment elsewhere in the economy, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics\u2019 Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen:<\/span><\/p>\n

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And because much of the capex investment involves importing tech from foreign companies, that cash\u2014which by definition leaves the country\u2014is negative for GDP growth:<\/span><\/p>\n

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THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

Tech bulls are barely winning their fight against the oil bears<\/b><\/h2>\n

Stock markets were mixed globally this morning. Asia had a good day with the exception of China\u2019s CSI 300, which fell more than a full point. Europe, which is heavily dependent on energy imports, declined in early trading after the price of Brent crude oil rose to $117 per barrel and settled later at $116.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the U.S., futures in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up marginally after the main index rose yesterday. Tech stocks were largely buoyed by the appearance of Anthropic\u2019s IPO filing, which largely calmed fears that AI frontier labs\u2014and the ecosystem they have created around them\u2014might be unable to operate sustainably.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meta was the major exception: Its stock declined nearly 2% after it announced it would offer $95 billion in new, dilutive stock to fund its AI buildout plans.<\/span><\/p>\n