{"id":18962,"date":"2026-10-15T07:50:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T07:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18962"},"modified":"2026-10-15T07:50:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T07:50:48","slug":"the-houthis-saudi-attacks-are-unprecedented-trump-wants-to-ignore-until-the-midterms-but-the-chaos-may-force-u-s-to-respond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18962","title":{"rendered":"The Houthis\u2019 Saudi attacks are \u2018unprecedented.\u2019 Trump wants to \u2018ignore\u2019 until the midterms, but the chaos may force U.S. to respond"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz rose to post-February highs last month, a new \u201cOctober window of escalation\u201d is heating up as the Yemeni Houthis dramatically increase their attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iran is again taking aim at more tankers and shipping containers, geopolitical and energy analysts said.<\/p>\n

\n

The U.S. response thus far? Essentially crickets. President Donald Trump has accused them of \u201cbehaving very badly\u201d and that the U.S. will \u201cmove very quickly.\u201d But little military action has been taken thus far.<\/p>\n

It seems both the U.S. and Iran are eyeing the Nov. 3 midterm elections<\/a>. Trump wants to avoid escalation before then that further exasperates gasoline and diesel prices, while Iran wants to inflict maximum political damage. Trump has essentially admitted as much multiple times, adding on social media on Tuesday, \u201cI\u2019ll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget!\u201d<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, a missile strike hit a portion of the Saudi Aramco<\/a> headquarters\u2014the massive state oil company. That follows several days of devastating attacks, primarily over the weekend, on the crowded Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia that killed at least 20 (including one U.S. citizen) and injured hundreds more. The Houthis pledged to continue striking energy facilities and airports.<\/p>\n

Fernando\u00a0Ferreira, director of the geopolitical risk service at\u00a0Rapidan\u00a0Energy Group, said it is unprecedented for the Iran-backed Houthis to strike so successfully at critical<\/a> Saudi infrastructure.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe measured [U.S.] response reflects the fact that there are not a lot of good options to respond here,\u201d Ferreira told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cWe can escalate against the Houthis and impose a lot of pain, but that won\u2019t necessarily change the Houthi calculus or significantly degrade their capabilities. The Houthis have developed capabilities that are well underground, they\u2019re protected.\u201d<\/p>\n

That dynamic also is playing out in the Strait of Hormuz where traffic is slowing down this week from last month\u2019s highs. The International Energy Agency reported Wednesday that September oil volumes out of the Middle East essentially rose to 75% of pre-war volumes.<\/p>\n

The U.S. had promised to take \u201ctanker-for-a-tanker\u201d actions, attacking an Iranian vessel for each one struck by Iran, with the U.S. response often exceeding the initial attack, Ferreira noted. \u201c<\/strong>We haven\u2019t really responded to the latest wave of Iranian attacks,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen at least 20-plus attacks over the course of the past two weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

The question now is whether the U.S. will wait until after Nov. 3 for an escalated response, or whether the provocations will force the Trump administration to answer sooner, Ferreira added.<\/p>\n

\u2018Calm before the storm\u2019<\/h2>\n

Barring an unexpected peace deal between the U.S. and Iran (something that seems unlikely given how far apart the two sides remain), the other big debate revolves around the scope of the conflict once it heats up again. Will the U.S. focus on Iran and stay out of the related Houthi-Saudi conflict, wonders oil forecaster Dan Pickering, founder of the Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm. Or, he says, is this the \u201ccalm before the storm\u201d of an inevitable intensification?<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re staring at the midterms and there is no response,\u201d Pickering said. \u201cIt\u2019s an unpopular conflict. If you\u2019re ramping [the war] back up, that\u2019s scary. If you just choose words, that looks weak. So, it feels like the U.S. has chosen to ignore the problem rather than address it.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not clear if it\u2019s the calm before the storm, or if the U.S. is deciding it doesn\u2019t want to acknowledge any storm.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead of only helping the Saudis militarily behind the scenes, Pickering said, it would require spending a lot of metaphorical political capital and literal military expenditures to engage directly in bigger attacks on the Houthis. The U.S. is deciding it\u2019s not worth it at this time, he said.<\/p>\n

And the Houthis attacks are more sophisticated than ever with advanced drone warfare and years of planning. Even though the Saudis have more firepower overall, they cannot defend every strike. Every Saudi response is answered by Houthi escalation.<\/p>\n

Part of the reasoning why the U.S. may be hands off is because more oil is exiting the Middle East\u2014despite the increased volatility this week\u2014thanks to the U.S. investing more in military escorts out of the strait. But that could backfire. \u201cIran will not accept the status quo as we have now where we\u2019re moving millions of barrels a day through Hormuz,\u201d Ferreira said. \u201cThey will not just simply stand by and allow that to happen. We\u2019re seeing that playing out now, and they\u2019re forcing a confrontation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, oil is priced well over $100 per barrel, and gasoline and diesel prices are at or near seasonal record highs. Trump even brokered a deal with Russia for a limited amount of diesel exports that experts said will have little impact on pricing\u2014in exchange for reduced Russian sanctions.<\/p>\n

With the war in its eighth month, U.S. oil producers are now beginning to prepare for higher prices going deep into 2027 and maybe even 2028. That could mean more spending, drilling, and U.S. volumes pushed to new record highs next year, Pickering said, as well as higher fuel prices for longer. The companies don\u2019t want to react much to blips of high prices; they want longer-term certainty.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe producers haven\u2019t had a price signal to react to, but they\u2019re starting to get one,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz rose to post-February highs last month, a new \u201cOctober window of escalation\u201d is heating up as the Yemeni Houthis dramatically increase their attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iran is again taking aim at more tankers and shipping containers, geopolitical and energy analysts said. The U.S. response […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":960,"featured_media":18963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Houthis\u2019 Saudi attacks are \u2018unprecedented.\u2019 Trump wants to \u2018ignore\u2019 until the midterms, but the chaos may force U.S. to respond | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Houthis are "misbehaving very badly," but the U.S. is doing 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Blum","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=960"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"After oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz rose to post-February highs last month, a new \u201cOctober window of escalation\u201d is heating up as the Yemeni Houthis dramatically increase their attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iran is again taking aim at more tankers and shipping containers, geopolitical and energy analysts said. 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