{"id":18767,"date":"2026-09-04T21:36:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T21:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18767"},"modified":"2026-09-04T21:36:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T21:36:13","slug":"bitcoin-is-trading-more-like-an-amplified-version-of-gold-again-but-the-four-year-cycle-theory-threatens-further-declines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18767","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin is trading more like an \u2018amplified version of gold\u2019 again, but the four-year cycle theory threatens further declines"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bitcoin hit a multi-month high this week thanks in part to investors fleeing volatility and treating the largest cryptocurrency like a safe haven again.<\/p>\n

\n

From early June, the price had been stuck in a range between $60,000 and $70,000, disappointing investors still hopeful Bitcoin could return to the boom times of October when it skyrocketed above $126,000.<\/a><\/p>\n

Late last month, it finally broke out of that range, and on Thursday, it reached a four-month high of $82,262, before paring back gains. Bitcoin was down 2% at about $79,800 on Friday afternoon, still near the highest level it had reached since May.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In a recent note to clients, Bitwise\u2019s director of research for Europe, Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, said the cryptocurrency\u2019s recent upswing comes as investors have treated it more as a store of value than a risky tech stock.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently revealed a plan to increase the Treasury\u2019s buybacks of long-dated bonds as yields surged. The move raised fears of \u201cfinancial repression\u201d and came as the 30-year yield hit its highest level in nearly two decades late last month<\/a>, with the Iran war keeping inflation forecasts elevated.<\/p>\n

Amid Bessent\u2019s proposed measure, which hasn\u2019t been rolled out yet, Bitcoin\u2019s 90-day correlation with gold has neared a six-year high, Dragosch wrote<\/a> in the note.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That marks a change from earlier this year, when Bitcoin traded more like a risk-on asset that was more correlated with tech stocks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen things get serious and macro forces are strong, investors are discriminating less and less between bitcoin and gold as they navigate rising currency debasement risks,\u201d Dragosch wrote in the note. \u201cIn those scenarios, bitcoin has recently started to look like an amplified version of gold.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, this may not be as good a sign for the overall market. The last time Bitcoin and the dollar were this closely correlated was in 2020, as central banks worldwide responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with stimulus and quantitative easing, Dragosch warned.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some traders also claim Bitcoin\u2019s recent good news could be short-lived, given the four-year cycle theory, which holds that Bitcoin\u2019s bear market lows and bull market tops tend to occur in four year increments. This means Bitcoin\u2019s next bear market bottom could be some time in November, four years after the last bear market bottom in November 2022, if the theory holds true, according to Fidelity\u2019s fourth quarter crypto market outlook.<\/a><\/p>\n

The four-year cycle theory is partly tied to the process of Bitcoin\u2019s halving, which cuts rewards to miners that keep the blockchain that backs up Bitcoin running.\u00a0<\/p>\n

One of the louder voices touting the four-year cycle theory is Alex Thorn, Galaxy\u2019s head of firmwide research. In a June report<\/a>, Thorn wrote \u201cthe historical analogies suggest a base case bottom for the current drawdown between $40k-46k occurring sometime between now and Q4 2026,\u201d although he noted this was not a price prediction.<\/p>\n

Still, Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, said in the fourth quarter market outlook that this theory doesn\u2019t necessarily mean there will be a downslide later this year, as the timing of the four-year cycle theory isn\u2019t exact.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIn light of this, having a long-term perspective and holding period is what has historically been the most beneficial for investors,\u201d Kuiper wrote in the report this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin hit a multi-month high this week thanks in part to investors fleeing volatility and treating the largest cryptocurrency like a safe haven again. From early June, the price had been stuck in a range between $60,000 and $70,000, disappointing investors still hopeful Bitcoin could return to the boom times of October when it skyrocketed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":329,"featured_media":18768,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin is trading more like an \u2018amplified version of gold\u2019 again, but the four-year cycle theory threatens further declines 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