{"id":18586,"date":"2026-07-25T10:35:48","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T10:35:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18586"},"modified":"2026-07-25T10:35:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T10:35:48","slug":"defense-tech-investors-thought-the-war-in-iran-could-make-them-millionaires-instead-they-faced-a-wall-street-bloodbath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18586","title":{"rendered":"Defense tech investors thought the war in Iran could make them millionaires. Instead, they faced a Wall Street bloodbath"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

Trading volumes in major defense contractors surged in the conflict\u2019s opening days\u2014rising for some as much as 140% above their average level during Trump\u2019s second term\u2014but the gains didn\u2019t last. Northrop Grumman<\/a> is now down over 30%, L3Harris Technologies<\/a> has fallen over 20%, and Lockheed Martin<\/a> has declined nearly 13%. Raytheon Technologies<\/a> (RTX)\u2014No. 49 on the Fortune 500\u2014was at one point down about 18%, though the stock has since recovered to up 4% after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n

\n

At first glance, the selloff seems counterintuitive. The Pentagon has fired thousands of high-end munitions during the conflict, including more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles<\/a> and hundreds of THAAD, Patriot, and SM-3 interceptors to protect U.S. and allied forces, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies<\/a>. Replenishing those depleted stockpiles is likely to benefit defense contractors, on top of the Trump administration\u2019s push for a $1.5 trillion defense budget<\/a>\u2014a 42% increase.<\/p>\n

Markets, however, have remained unimpressed. According to Guy Rozentsveig<\/a>, managing director in industries at investment bank Solomon Partners, one reason is simple: \u201cThe consensus opinion is that a lot of that good news was already priced in.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now, investors hunting for the industry\u2019s next payday are waiting to see whether higher defense budgets actually translate into new contracts, faster production, and stronger earnings\u2014or whether political and economic pressures slow long-term momentum. Meanwhile, a growing group of newer defense technology companies is hoping to capture a piece of that future spending, too.<\/p>\n

Defense stocks are down, but history shows it\u2019s not surprising<\/h2>\n

Determining whether defense stocks are worthwhile investments takes more than comparing quarterly earnings or even how many missiles are fired alone\u2014it\u2019s often largely centered on how much governments commit to spending in the years ahead.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why, according to Mike Derrios, executive director of the Baroni Center for Government Contracting at George Mason University<\/a>, the best returns in defense often come long before a conflict begins.<\/p>\n

\u201cInvestor<\/a> \u2018alpha\u2019 is most likely gained when investments are made before wars and before legislated funding, not after a war has begun, become unpopular, or when associated plus-ups are in doubt,\u201d Derrios told Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n

History largely backs that up. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, for example, several contractors initially outperformed\u2014but, according to a Fisher Investment analysis<\/a>, much of those gains had already occurred before the invasion. Afterward, defense stocks largely moved in line with the broader market, suggesting that armed conflict alone doesn\u2019t guarantee years of market-beating returns.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe rationale sounds logical, but history suggests this isn\u2019t necessarily a winning move,\u201d the firm concluded. For investors chasing the next windfall, the lesson isn\u2019t about the war itself\u2014it\u2019s about being positioned before it starts.<\/p>\n

Investors also have to contend with another reality: many of the biggest defense companies aren\u2019t pure-play military businesses. Boeing<\/a>, for example, derives substantial revenue from its commercial aviation business, meaning separate economic conditions can have just as much impact on its stock as Pentagon spending.<\/p>\n

Looking forward, potential change to the U.S. political environment could also sway investment, said Byron Callan, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, an independent research analysis firm tracking the defense sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the public reacts even more negatively to a resumption of fighting with Iran, that\u2019s going to bode even worse for GOP prospects in the midterm elections\u2014what will that say about defense in \u201827 and \u201828?\u201d Callan said on the July 20 episode of the Defense & Aerospace Report podcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The broader economy also remains a risk, he added: \u201cIf energy is going to spike again and you\u2019re going to see higher inflation, you\u2019re going to see higher interest rates as the Fed tries to tamp that down.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many of the defense players are entering the second half of the year on strong footing thanks to enlarged order books. RTX and Northrop Grumman<\/a> recently reported record backlogs of $289 billion and $105 billion, respectively, while Lockheed Martin\u2019s backlog stands at $167 billion.<\/p>\n

The next winners may not be the defense old guard<\/h2>\n

Even if Washington follows through on its defense spending plans, not all investors are convinced the biggest winners will be the industry\u2019s traditional contractors.<\/p>\n

Over the past few years, venture capital has poured billions into a new generation of defense technology startups promising to build weapons systems faster, cheaper, and with more software than the Pentagon\u2019s legacy suppliers. The investment boom has reshaped the sector, creating a growing crop of multibillion-dollar companies\u2014and fueling an emerging bubble in the defense tech space, as analyzed by Fortune<\/em>\u2019s Allie Garkinkle<\/a><\/p>\n

In the first quarter of 2026 alone, venture capital firms deployed a record $19.8 billion into defense tech across 262 deals, according to PitchBook. That\u2019s up from $17 billion in the first quarter of 2025 and just $5.7 billion during the same period two years earlier.<\/p>\n

Today, companies like Anduril<\/a> (whose valuation recently doubled<\/a> to $61 billion), Shield AI<\/a> ($12.5 billion), and Saronic<\/a> ($9.25 billion) are among Silicon Valley\u2019s fastest-growing defense startups.<\/p>\n

For now, however, they\u2019re still fighting for a relatively small slice of Pentagon spending. Contract dollars to the 15 highest-valued defense-tech startups tripled between 2022 and the last fiscal year, yet they still accounted for less than 1% of all Defense Department contracting dollars, according to The Wall Street Journal<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

But that could begin to change. A recent Government Accountability Office report<\/a> found that the Pentagon\u2019s largest acquisition programs now take an average of more than 12 years to deliver new capabilities\u2014a timeline that continues to grow as major weapons programs face delays. Those bottlenecks have fueled interest in companies that promise to move at Silicon Valley speed rather than traditional defense timelines.<\/p>\n

For investors, that means the next defense boom may not simply reward the companies that have dominated military contracts for decades. It could also create millionaire-making opportunities for those willing to bet early on startups as the Pentagon reshapes how it buys its next-generation defense capabilities.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trading volumes in major defense contractors surged in the conflict\u2019s opening days\u2014rising for some as much as 140% above their average level during Trump\u2019s second term\u2014but the gains didn\u2019t last. Northrop Grumman is now down over 30%, L3Harris Technologies has fallen over 20%, and Lockheed Martin has declined nearly 13%. Raytheon Technologies (RTX)\u2014No. 49 on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":361,"featured_media":18587,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nDefense tech investors thought the war in Iran could make them millionaires. 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Fore","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=361"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Trading volumes in major defense contractors surged in the conflict\u2019s opening days\u2014rising for some as much as 140% above their average level during Trump\u2019s second term\u2014but the gains didn\u2019t last. Northrop Grumman is now down over 30%, L3Harris Technologies has fallen over 20%, and Lockheed Martin has declined nearly 13%. Raytheon Technologies (RTX)\u2014No. 49 on…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/361"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18586"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18586\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18587"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}