{"id":18389,"date":"2026-06-06T22:35:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-06T22:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18389"},"modified":"2026-06-06T22:35:49","modified_gmt":"2026-06-06T22:35:49","slug":"spacex-and-other-mega-ipos-may-wait-years-to-join-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18389","title":{"rendered":"SpaceX and other mega IPOs may wait years to join the S&P 500"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Mega-IPO candidates including SpaceX<\/a> are expected to face a long road to entry to the S&P 500 Index, after the company that makes the rules rejected a proposal that included relaxing the requirement that they be profitable.<\/p>\n

\n

S&P Dow<\/a> Jones Indices\u2019 index committee declined to remove a rule that companies generate positive net income for the past year, including the most recent quarter, the firm\u00a0announced<\/a> Thursday after a month-long consultation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Evercore<\/a> ISI research analysts don\u2019t expect Elon Musk\u2019s rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company to generate positive net income on an annual basis until 2027, according to a person familiar with the forecasts, who asked not to be identified as the information isn\u2019t public. That could mean its entry is held up until sometime in 2028 if the rule remains in place.<\/p>\n

\u201cEventually these mega-IPOs will be added to the S&P 500, unless their business models fail, so it is a question of timing,\u201d said Jay Ritter, University of Florida emeritus professor and director of the IPO Initiative. \u201cGiven the low floats and the huge amounts of money indexed to the S&P 500, I think it\u2019s good that they\u2019ll wait until the stocks have a more liquid market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read More:\u00a0S&P\u2019s SpaceX Snub Shows Elon Musk the Power of Index Gatekeepers<\/a><\/p>\n

The decision comes as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., as it\u2019s formally known, prepares to start trading June 12. It\u2019s targeting a $1.8 trillion valuation, which would be bigger than all but six of the companies in the S&P 500, and larger than Musk\u2019s own Tesla<\/a> Inc.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The company is also set to enter indexes including the Nasdaq<\/a> 100 as soon as the end of this month. Unlike S&P, Nasdaq Inc. did change its rules, allowing Nasdaq 100 entry in just 15 trading days, down from a three-month minimum. FTSE Russell adopted a similar approach, shortening the waiting time to five trading days.<\/p>\n

A representative for SpaceX didn\u2019t immediately respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Evercore ISI declined to comment.<\/p>\n

Balancing Act<\/h3>\n

Anthropic PBC and OpenAI are also weighing IPOs as soon as this year, Bloomberg News reported, and could face similar hurdles to SpaceX despite expectations that the companies would be valued at more than $1 trillion each if they went public.<\/p>\n

The AI model makers\u2019 entry to the benchmark will depend on how operations and spending balance. Anthropic\u2019s operating profit for the June quarter is expected to hit $559 million, but the company does not necessarily expect to be profitable in future quarters as it ramps up spending on computing resources and other costs, Bloomberg News reported.<\/p>\n

OpenAI isn\u2019t expected to be profitable in the coming years.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom a corporate strategy standpoint, it\u2019s not irrational to choose to run at a loss,\u201d Lawrence Creatura, a fund manager at PRSPCTV Capital LLC, said in an interview. Creatura pointed to large companies like Amazon<\/a>.com Inc. and Uber Technologies<\/a> Inc. which didn\u2019t join the benchmark until years after going public.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt will mean you won\u2019t be in the S&P 500 for the moment,\u201d Creatura said. \u201cBut look at those companies now.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read More:\u00a0Can OpenAI and Anthropic Deliver on IPO Hype?: Explainer<\/a><\/p>\n

The purpose of the S&P 500 is to emulate the US domestic market, according to Howard Silverblatt, former senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones. Maintaining the net income requirement is \u201cthe hardest one for the S&P to defend,\u201d he said, adding that he believes a GAAP requirement is beneficial to the index.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are companies that are spending more on R&D than are making profits, even though they might have profitable lines,\u201d he said in an interview, adding that SpaceX is one such company.<\/p>\n

Research teams at Goldman Sachs Group<\/a> Inc. and Evercore ISI expect SpaceX\u2019s capital expenditures to soar to more than $360 billion in 2030, up from more than $20 billion last year, Bloomberg News has reported. Goldman Sachs\u2019 team penciled in positive free cash flow for 2031 of more than $72 billion after hitting a trough of negative $105 billion in 2029, a person familiar with the matter has said.<\/p>\n

Their fast inclusion in the benchmark would have led to about $14 billion in forced passive buying for SpaceX, more than $8 billion for OpenAI and close to $9 billion for Anthropic, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Holding the line may have caused some consternation for market watchers while others were relieved that the rules will remain in effect.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For Michael Antonelli, market strategist at Baird<\/a>, it won\u2019t change the perception of the benchmark in the slightest.<\/p>\n

\u201cLet\u2019s be honest: It\u2019s the world\u2019s premier stock-market index. It\u2019s the gold standard of stock-market indexes globally,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey have rules about profitability and index inclusion and they\u2019re just sticking by them,\u201d Antonelli said. \u201cJust because it\u2019s Elon Musk and SpaceX, I don\u2019t think that they\u2019re willing to change something that\u2019s hard coded into their product.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mega-IPO candidates including SpaceX are expected to face a long road to entry to the S&P 500 Index, after the company that makes the rules rejected a proposal that included relaxing the requirement that they be profitable. S&P Dow Jones Indices\u2019 index committee declined to remove a rule that companies generate positive net income for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":985,"featured_media":18390,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nSpaceX and other mega IPOs may wait years to join the S&P 500 | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Unlike S&P, Nasdaq Inc. did change its rules, allowing Nasdaq 100 entry in just 15 trading days, down from a three-month minimum.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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