{"id":18310,"date":"2026-05-19T17:50:48","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T17:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18310"},"modified":"2026-05-19T17:50:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T17:50:48","slug":"blood-in-the-streets-legendary-investor-jeremy-grantham-pulls-back-the-curtain-on-the-ai-wars-to-reveal-a-brutal-competitive-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=18310","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Blood in the streets\u2019: Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham pulls back the curtain on the AI wars to reveal a \u2018brutal, competitive world\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jeremy Grantham has spent five decades calling market bubbles before anyone else wanted to hear it. Now he has a warning for investors still betting that AI will mint a new generation of tech monopolies: the exact opposite is happening.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cWe have gone from a monopoly world to a brutal competitive world,\u201d Grantham said in a recent appearance on the\u00a0Excess Returns<\/em>\u00a0podcast<\/a>. \u201cAnd we will stay there for years and there will be blood in the streets.\u201d<\/p>\n

The GMO co-founder and market historian argues that the Magnificent 7\u2014the mega-cap tech giants that powered Wall Street\u2019s AI-fueled rally\u2014built their dominance over the past two decades in an unusual era of antitrust permissiveness. Regulators stood down, competition was crushed or acquired, and profit margins swelled to levels with few historical precedents. That window, he says, is closing fast.<\/p>\n

The culprit is AI itself.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s easy to forget, Grantham previously told Fortune<\/em>, is that the AI boom didn\u2019t arrive into a healthy market. The S&P 500 had already fallen roughly 25% from January through October 2022\u2014a correction quietly underway\u2014when ChatGPT launched and the Magnificent 7 \u201clifted the market on its broad shoulders and staggered forward,\u201d as Grantham told Fortune<\/em> in April<\/a>. In his view, the AI frenzy didn\u2019t fix the underlying problem. It deferred it while making it larger: a fresh speculative frenzy injected on top of an already overvalued system.<\/p>\n

Now, each of the largest technology companies is racing to win what amounts to an existential arms race. Amazon<\/a>, Google<\/a>, Meta<\/a>, and Microsoft<\/a> have collectively earmarked $725 billion in capital expenditures this year, according to analysis of company statements first calculated by the Financial Times<\/em><\/a>. This is roughly 2% of U.S. GDP, much of it directed at AI infrastructure. Rather than compounding the advantages of incumbents, Grantham argued on\u00a0Excess Returns<\/em>, AI is forcing them into brutal, costly competition with one another. The moats are being drained to fill the war chests.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt will not move aggregate profit margins or aggregate profits notably higher than they are typically,\u201d he predicted.<\/p>\n

His reasoning draws on a lesson from an earlier technological revolution. When asset managers in the 1970s and \u201980s rushed to buy room-sized minicomputers, the first movers enjoyed a genuine edge\u2014for perhaps two or three years. Then adoption became universal, the technology became a cost of doing business, and profit margins normalized. Grantham, speaking on\u00a0Excess Returns<\/em>, said he sees AI on the same arc: a transformative technology that will reshape how work gets done while ultimately leaving aggregate corporate profitability right where it started.<\/p>\n

Bulls would counter that this is exactly the point: two or three years of outperformance before normalization is still enormous value for early shareholders and the trade is about getting out before the normalization hits. Grantham\u2019s own firm, in its February 2026 paper\u00a0Sink or Swim<\/a><\/em>, examined whether capex booms \u201cforetell wise investments or warn of over-optimism,\u201d and notably stopped short of a clean answer.<\/p>\n

The argument cuts against one of the most widely held assumptions currently embedded in equity valuations: markets are pricing the Mag 7 at elevated multiples\u00a0because\u00a0they assume AI will be deployed to sustain or expand these historically high profit margins. <\/p>\n

And yet Grantham himself acknowledged on\u00a0Excess Returns<\/em>, as he did with Fortune<\/em>,\u00a0that the AI spending boom has been doing real economic work. Without it, he said on the podcast, the U.S. \u201cwould have gone into a minor recession\u201d in 2023, with a downward correction of around 25%. He called the current situation \u201cterra incognita\u201d\u2014unprecedented reliance on AI spending as a share of GDP, with no historical roadmap for how it resolves. The bet Wall Street is making, in other words, may be self-fulfilling right up until it isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

But Grantham flagged\u00a0a divergence already playing out in public markets. GMO\u2019s emerging market fund has returned approximately 70% over the past 12 months compared to roughly 25% for the S&P 500\u2014a gap he frames as textbook mean reversion from a period in early 2025 when international equities sat near all-time cheapness relative to U.S. stocks. He said that trade still has room to run.<\/p>\n

For now, Grantham stopped short of sounding the alarm bell. His quarterly letter of July 15, 2008, opened with a single instruction: \u201cAbandon ship.\u201d He invoked the old French expression\u00a0\u201csauve qui peut,\u201d or anyone who can save themselves, save themselves, and closed with a nursery rhyme:\u00a0Don\u2019t be brave, run away, live to fight another day.\u00a0Emerging markets fell 50% in the four months that followed.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s not there yet. But he\u2019s watching for blood in the streets.<\/p>\n

For this story,\u00a0<\/em>Fortune\u00a0journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeremy Grantham has spent five decades calling market bubbles before anyone else wanted to hear it. Now he has a warning for investors still betting that AI will mint a new generation of tech monopolies: the exact opposite is happening. \u201cWe have gone from a monopoly world to a brutal competitive world,\u201d Grantham said in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":135,"featured_media":18311,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018Blood in the streets\u2019: Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham pulls back the curtain on the AI wars to reveal a \u2018brutal, competitive world\u2019 | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the era of Big Tech monopoly profits is over 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Lichtenberg","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=135"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Jeremy Grantham has spent five decades calling market bubbles before anyone else wanted to hear it. Now he has a warning for investors still betting that AI will mint a new generation of tech monopolies: the exact opposite is happening. \u201cWe have gone from a monopoly world to a brutal competitive world,\u201d Grantham said in…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/135"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18310"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18310\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18311"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}