{"id":17926,"date":"2026-02-20T19:05:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T19:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=17926"},"modified":"2026-02-20T19:05:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T19:05:48","slug":"we-are-in-a-dismal-fiscal-situation-and-it-just-got-worse-budget-watchdog-sounds-the-alarm-even-louder-after-supreme-court-erases-trumps-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=17926","title":{"rendered":"\u2018We are in a dismal fiscal situation, and it just got worse\u2019: Budget watchdog sounds the alarm even louder after Supreme Court erases Trump\u2019s tariffs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Supreme Court ruled a large swathe of the Trump administration\u2019s tariffs unconstitutional<\/a> on Friday. It might make the average American consumer happy, but the decision could amount to trillions of dollars worth of lost government revenue over the next decade, and eventually come back to haunt the country\u2019s fiscal stability.<\/p>\n

\n

As evidence mounted that tariffs were taking a toll<\/a> on American shoppers and companies, the Supreme Court justices ruled 6-3<\/a> that Trump had exceeded his authority when he installed sweeping \u201cemergency\u201d tariffs on a number of trade partners. The decision was cheered by business coalitions<\/a>, and markets surged on the news.<\/p>\n

One group that wasn\u2019t so happy was the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan organization focusing on fiscal sustainability. While many both in the U.S. and abroad opposed Trump\u2019s signature trade policy, his tariff regime had already brought in billions in government revenue, with trillions more baked into the fiscal accounting for the rest of Trump\u2019s term and beyond. Those projected receipts evaporated on Friday, and as a result, America\u2019s already dramatic fiscal outlook suddenly deteriorated even further.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith today\u2019s Supreme Court ruling affirming the illegality of President Trump\u2019s emergency tariffs, the country will now be about $2 trillion deeper in the hole,\u201d Maya MacGuineas, CRFB\u2019s president, said in a statement<\/a>. \u201cWe are in a dismal fiscal situation, and it just got worse.\u201d<\/p>\n

For years, the country has been unable to rein in its debt burden. Lawmakers and presidents from both parties have been unwilling to significantly raise taxes or cut essential spending, actions that would help balance the budget. Earlier this month, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected that national debt as a percentage of GDP, currently sitting at around 100%, would rise to 120% in 10 years<\/a>. As the burden rises, so too do the required interest payments to service that debt. It all threatens to crowd out other spending and limit the government\u2019s ability to shift money around and respond to unexpected crises.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Making ends meet<\/strong><\/h2>\n

But those estimates assumed current policies would remain in place. Earlier this week, CRFB published an analysis that outlined the costs of removing Trump\u2019s tariffs, finding that the lost revenue would be one of the factors contributing to a much worse \u201calternative scenario<\/a>,\u201d where debt as a percentage of GDP rises to 131% by 2036, compared to the baseline projection of 120%. This would raise interest payments by nearly a trillion dollars by the end of the decade, threatening to eclipse spending on everything from Social Security to transportation infrastructure.<\/p>\n

The CRFB recommended Congress urgently find a way to patch up that lost tariff revenue, either by approving replacement tariffs or finding an alternative way to offset the loss. Last year, when the Supreme Court was due to begin hearing arguments on the legality of Trump\u2019s emergency tariffs, the organization listed a number of options<\/a> the legislature could consider.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some were long-standing prescriptions, such as scaling back tax cuts or cutting spending. That includes the costs projected to accompany Trump\u2019s massive One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which alone could add up to $4 trillion to the deficit<\/a> over the next decade.<\/p>\n

Other mechanisms were more novel. One option was to replace tariffs with a border adjustment tax, essentially a version of the value added tax, or VAT, on goods that most of the world\u2019s nations levy in some shape or form. While tariffs selectively penalize specific foreign imports, VAT levies treat all products equally and tend to have a neutral impact on trade.<\/p>\n

Another avenue would be to simply replace tariffs with other tariffs. Trump would still be able to invoke national security or market distortion concerns to implement tariffs this way. But unlike his \u201cemergency\u201d measures that just got ruled out, approving these barriers<\/a> would likely require lengthy procedures involving investigations and reports to Congress.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s tough audience<\/strong><\/h2>\n

But even without the heavier bureaucratic slog, American consumers might not be willing to entertain a revival of Trump\u2019s extensive tariffs. Nearly two thirds of Americans say that tariffs make their everyday lives less affordable, including a majority of people who voted for Trump in 2024, according to a Council on Foreign Relations poll<\/a> published this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Businesses would also likely be opposed. In a statement<\/a> supporting the Supreme Court\u2019s ruling, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged the Trump administration to use this opportunity to reset overall tariff policy in a manner that will lead to greater economic growth, larger wage gains for workers, and lower costs for families.\u201d And of course, small businesses were the ones to first bring a case<\/a> against the administration questioning the legality of its tariff regime last year.<\/p>\n

But while many Americans might cheer the downgrading of Trump\u2019s protective trade policies this week, the country\u2019s fiscal outlook continues to darken. The bottom line, according to CRFB\u2019s MacGuineas, is that the U.S. is in desperate need of either cash or savings to plug its gaping deficit. And right now, it\u2019s getting none of either.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need Washington to put forward an agenda to truly address the debt. That means cutting spending, raising revenue, lowering healthcare costs, and securing our trust funds,\u201d she said. \u201cWhatever one feels about the tariffs themselves, the country needs that $2 trillion in fiscal improvements, all of which should be dedicated to deficit reduction.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Supreme Court ruled a large swathe of the Trump administration\u2019s tariffs unconstitutional on Friday. It might make the average American consumer happy, but the decision could amount to trillions of dollars worth of lost government revenue over the next decade, and eventually come back to haunt the country\u2019s fiscal stability. As evidence mounted that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":946,"featured_media":17927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018We are in a dismal fiscal situation, and it just got worse\u2019: Budget watchdog sounds the alarm even louder after Supreme Court erases Trump\u2019s tariffs | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The court's decision was cheered by many, but it puts the country on an even more dangerous fiscal path.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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Bove","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=946"},"uagb_comment_info":1,"uagb_excerpt":"The Supreme Court ruled a large swathe of the Trump administration\u2019s tariffs unconstitutional on Friday. It might make the average American consumer happy, but the decision could amount to trillions of dollars worth of lost government revenue over the next decade, and eventually come back to haunt the country\u2019s fiscal stability. 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