{"id":17195,"date":"2025-11-29T21:05:48","date_gmt":"2025-11-29T21:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=17195"},"modified":"2025-11-29T21:05:48","modified_gmt":"2025-11-29T21:05:48","slug":"wall-street-strategist-explains-todays-political-rage-with-a-poverty-line-that-should-be-140000-and-the-valley-of-death-trapping-people-below-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=17195","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street strategist explains today\u2019s political rage with a poverty line that should be $140,000 and the \u2018Valley of Death\u2019 trapping people below it"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The affordability crisis rippling through American politics saw voters dump Democrats for another Donald Trump presidency last year, while this year saw a democratic socialist elected as mayor of New York City.<\/p>\n

\n

That\u2019s despite economic data showing cooler inflation, steady income gains, and resilient consumer spending. <\/p>\n

But according to Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager for Simplify Asset Management, conventional gauges don\u2019t capture how much Americans are struggling with the cost of living, even households earning six figures.<\/p>\n

In a viral Substack post last week<\/a>, he took particular aim at the federal government\u2019s poverty line, which traces back to the early 1960s and was calculated by tripling the cost of a minimum food diet at the time. <\/p>\n

\u201cBut everything changed between 1963 and 2024,\u201d Green wrote. \u201cHousing costs exploded. Healthcare became the largest household expense for many families. Employer coverage shrank while deductibles grew. Childcare became a market, and that market became ruinously expensive. College went from affordable to crippling. Transportation costs rose as cities sprawled and public transit withered under government neglect.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a two-income household is now needed to maintain what one income once provided, but that incurs childcare costs and the need for two cars.<\/p>\n

As a result, the poverty line\u2019s narrow focus on food leaves out how much other expenses are now sucking up incomes and lowballing the minimum amount Americans need to get by. <\/p>\n

Green estimated that food comprises just 5%-7% of household spending, but put housing at 35%-45%, childcare at 20%-40%, and healthcare at 15%-25%.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the crisis threshold\u2014the floor below which families cannot function\u2014is honestly updated to current spending patterns, it lands at $140,000,\u201d he added. \u201cWhat does that tell you about the $31,200 line we still use? It tells you we are measuring starvation.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018The Valley of Death\u2019<\/h2>\n

At the same time, Americans who are below Green\u2019s version of the poverty threshold are still falling behind, even as they climb the income ladder. <\/p>\n

That sets up a perverse disincentive as the poorest, by contrast, aren\u2019t penalized with mounting burdens when support is taken away.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur entire safety net is designed to catch people at the very bottom, but it sets a trap for anyone trying to climb out,\u201d he explained. \u201cAs income rises from $40,000 to $100,000, benefits disappear faster than wages increase. I call this The Valley of Death.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic offered a respite for many families because working parents didn\u2019t pay for childcare or gas to commute while working from home. Stimulus checks also added to their incomes.<\/p>\n

But after the economy reopened, those costs came back and inflation surged. And while it has come down drastically since 2022, overall price levels didn\u2019t come down and remain high.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis mathematical valley explains the rage we see in the American electorate, specifically the animosity the \u2018working poor\u2019 (the middle class) feel toward the \u2018actual poor\u2019 and immigrants,\u201d Green said. <\/p>\n

The anger doesn\u2019t stem from racism or lack of empathy, he added. Instead, it\u2019s more about resentment at the government.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you are drowning, and you see the lifeguard throw a life vest to the person treading water next to you\u2014a person who isn\u2019t swimming as hard as you are\u2014you don\u2019t feel happiness for them,\u201d he said. \u201cYou feel a homicidal rage at the lifeguard. We have created a system where the only way to survive is to be destitute enough to qualify for aid, or rich enough to ignore the cost. Everyone in the middle is being cannibalized.\u201d<\/p>\n

Life is expensive<\/h2>\n

To be sure, Green acknowledged his calculations are based on costs in suburban New Jersey. His threshold is also above the median household income for a family of four in 37 states, according to the Washington Post<\/em><\/a>. <\/p>\n

But Massachusetts Institute of Technology\u2019s Living Wage Calculator<\/a>\u00a0and the Economic Policy Institute\u00a0have also put family expenses in some states at more than $100,000 a year.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, financial strains from the higher cost of living also help explain why discount retailers like Walmart<\/a>\u00a0have reported\u00a0seeing more upper-income customers<\/a>\u00a0shopping at their stores.<\/p>\n

In Green\u2019s view, the point is that food is relatively affordable, notwithstanding higher grocery prices lately. Life overall is what\u2019s expensive.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe real poverty line\u2014the threshold where a family can afford housing, healthcare, childcare, and transportation without relying on means-tested benefits\u2014isn\u2019t $31,200. It\u2019s ~$140,000,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

His Substack post also echoed a recent\u00a0survey from the Harris Poll<\/a> that showed many Americans earning six figures, even $200,000 a year, are privately struggling<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Among the findings was that 64% of six-figure earners said their income isn\u2019t a milestone for success but merely the bare minimum for staying afloat.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur data shows that even high earners are financially anxious\u2014they\u2019re living the illusion of affluence while privately juggling credit cards, debt, and survival strategies,\u201d Libby Rodney, the Harris Poll\u2019s chief strategy officer and futurist, said in a statement.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The affordability crisis rippling through American politics saw voters dump Democrats for another Donald Trump presidency last year, while this year saw a democratic socialist elected as mayor of New York City. That\u2019s despite economic data showing cooler inflation, steady income gains, and resilient consumer spending. 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Ma","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=422"},"uagb_comment_info":1,"uagb_excerpt":"The affordability crisis rippling through American politics saw voters dump Democrats for another Donald Trump presidency last year, while this year saw a democratic socialist elected as mayor of New York City. That\u2019s despite economic data showing cooler inflation, steady income gains, and resilient consumer spending. But according to Michael Green, chief strategist and portfolio…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/422"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17195\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}