{"id":16924,"date":"2025-10-07T06:50:48","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T06:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=16924"},"modified":"2025-10-07T06:50:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T06:50:48","slug":"kpmg-chief-on-ceo-uncertainty-about-tariffs-the-ai-hourglass-org-shape-and-the-fear-that-honestly-keeps-me-up-at-night","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=16924","title":{"rendered":"KPMG chief on CEO uncertainty about tariffs, the AI \u2018hourglass\u2019 org shape and the fear \u2018that honestly keeps me up at night\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

KPMG\u2019s CEO Outlook survey offers an annual look behind the curtain at the issues keeping the top business leaders up at night. Every year, hundreds of leaders answer the call from the Big 4 accounting firm to speak frankly and anonymously about key issues that need to solved, and 400 participated in the 2025 edition. CEOs have a message for America: they just aren\u2019t sure of, well, anything.<\/p>\n

\n

Business leaders told KPMG\u2014and its recently anointed chair and CEO, Timothy Walsh\u2014that they\u2019re wrestling with uncertainty across several different areas of their work. This is well documented and is to be expected, Walsh told Fortune<\/em> in an interview. \u201cThere\u2019s this general, as you would expect, general conversation around business uncertainty,\u201d Walsh said, adding that he was encouraged at least to see the \u201calignment\u201d in terms of topics coming up in C-suite conversations. <\/p>\n

Peeling back the survey data, Walsh revealed that an unsurprisingly sizable majority (89%) say tariffs will \u201csignificantly impact\u201d their business\u2019 performance and operations over the coming three years. And nearly as many, 86%, said their firm will increase prices as needed. They are working hard to get around this, with 85% saying their company will strive to shift its sourcing strategies to minimize the impact as much as possible. The landscape is so uncertain that nearly every CEO says they need to make some kind of change: 79% said they\u2019ve adapted their growth plans.<\/p>\n

Walsh talked to Fortune<\/em> about uncertainty on tariffs and AI, and the importance of trust in a climate of such uncertainty. CEOs are concerned with another advancing technology with terrifying capabilities, Walsh said: cyber and quantum. <\/strong>\u201cThat honestly keeps me up at night.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cybersecurity\u2019s quantum challenge<\/h2>\n

Cybersecurity risks remain elevated, especially as quantum computing approaches. As for advances in quantum computing, Walsh said it could one day soon be capable of breaking all encryption, and companies tell him that they\u2019re doing full assessments. It\u2019s a \u201cmassive effort\u201d to ensure that they\u2019re not exposed when that quantum computing capability arrives, Walsh warned.<\/p>\n

Adding into the mix the capabilities of AI agents and, Walsh said, \u201cin many cases, a nation-state-type investment,\u201d he\u2019s very concerned about malware and deepfake-type technologies escalating in danger. Over the next three years, 82% of CEOs polled said cybercrime and cyber insecurity was a top trend that could hurt their organization. Cyber risk was overall the second-highest cited pressure behind CEOs\u2019 short-term decisions. CEOs are most concerned about fraud detection and prevention (65%) and identity theft (52%), but they also said they have plans in place to mitigate.<\/p>\n

All that being said, Walsh said CEOs are \u201cfeeling optimistic because they see so many growth opportunities.\u201d The economy has been surprisingly strong despite all the uncertainty, the tech sector is driving a very strong stock market, and he even noted some \u201clarge deals and transactions\u201d are coming through when it comes to M&A. \u201cCapital flows are starting to move and [be] a bit more liquid.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tariffs and the AI element<\/h3>\n

Walsh told Fortune<\/em> that tariffs are obviously the number-one thing on every CEO\u2019s mind. And it\u2019s not only the fact of tariffs but potential changes to tariffs, and \u201cthe uncertainty around whether those tariffs will continue to change.\u201d There\u2019s an overwhelming need for businesses to not only consider what will change but to get agile enough to work on their supply chains to be prepared for future, still uncertain, changes to come. To that end, 34% of CEOs said in the survey that supply chain resilience is the top pressure driving short-term decisions, followed by cyber security risks (29%) and global economic uncertainty (25%). <\/p>\n

Walsh emphasized that tariffs are introducing a multi-dimensional challenge for CEOs. \u201cThe CEOs I speak with are addressing tariff impacts in three areas: cost take-out, supply chain optimization including reshoring, onshoring considerations, and ultimately pricing.\u201d He said KPMG<\/a> is actively working with clients in all of those areas and yes, AI is part of this transformation, too. The prominence of AI is another layer of uncertainty being added to the picture, but Walsh said it\u2019s helping a lot of CEOs: \u201cAI is not just an efficiency play, CEOs are focused on innovating their business models and introducing new revenue streams and products.\u201d<\/p>\n

The AI hourglass to come?<\/h3>\n

Walsh said AI capabilities are changing quickly, and he acknowledged that companies are starting to restructure in response. The survey found that CEOs \u201cmostly see an hourglass shape\u201d to their organizations in next three years, Walsh said, noting that\u2019s typical with every new technology deployment. He added that \u201cno one knows exactly where [workforce shape] is headed \u2026 It\u2019s a challenge to forecast as AI advances rapidly.\u201d In the survey, 35% said they are planning for workforce reductions in some areas over the next two to five years due to AI, and 69% see an hourglass with higher numbers of senior leaders and early-career workers and fewer in the middle (another 16% said a vertical triangle, 13% a triangle and 2% an inverted pyramid).<\/p>\n

Managers are facing new responsibilities, managing teams with integrated AI agents, for instance. Walsh said some CEOs describe teams with both people and AI agents on them, \u201cand managers of those teams have to ensure [that] agents complete steps in the workflow process, that agents have good data inputs so that their outputs can be relied upon, and continuously review those outputs.\u201d CEOs surveyed said 86% of them see AI agents becoming embedded team members next year, and half think managers will be primarily responsible for managing AI agents\u2019 performance as opposed to, say, HR or IT.<\/p>\n

Walsh agreed with Fortune<\/em>\u2018s reporting that \u201chuman skills\u201d still matter as AI implementation shows the necessity of reviewing AI outputs. \u201cHuman skills are critically important,\u201d Walsh said. Even though KPMG invests in and spends time upskilling its workers on AI and providing them with tools and licenses, he said he continues to remind leaders that \u201chuman-to-human relationships are critical \u2026 both internally and externally. Trust is more important than ever. Building trust with our teams, clients and ensuring we can trust outputs of technology like AI.\u201d Given the uncertain climate, he added, trust is at a premium. The top change that CEOs see coming is retaining and re-training high-potential talent (75%), followed by redesigning roles to reflect AI collaboration (65%) and hiring AI-capable talent (64%).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Fortune Global Forum<\/strong> returns Oct. 26\u201327, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.<\/a><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KPMG\u2019s CEO Outlook survey offers an annual look behind the curtain at the issues keeping the top business leaders up at night. Every year, hundreds of leaders answer the call from the Big 4 accounting firm to speak frankly and anonymously about key issues that need to solved, and 400 participated in the 2025 edition. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":135,"featured_media":16925,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16924","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nKPMG chief on CEO uncertainty about tariffs, the AI \u2018hourglass\u2019 org shape and the fear \u2018that honestly keeps me up at night\u2019 | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 2025 edition of the KPMG CEO Outlook survey reveals business leaders full of uncertainty, but they know tariffs and AI are here to stay.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=16924\" 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Lichtenberg","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=135"},"uagb_comment_info":1,"uagb_excerpt":"KPMG\u2019s CEO Outlook survey offers an annual look behind the curtain at the issues keeping the top business leaders up at night. 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