{"id":16394,"date":"2025-08-23T18:50:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-23T18:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=16394"},"modified":"2025-08-23T18:50:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T18:50:48","slug":"powell-holds-the-key-to-the-next-fed-rate-move-as-divided-policymakers-will-likely-fail-to-reach-a-consensus-again-jpmorgan-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=16394","title":{"rendered":"Powell \u2018holds the key\u2019 to the next Fed rate move as divided policymakers will likely fail to reach a consensus again, JPMorgan says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A consensus view on Wall Street for a rate cut next month doesn\u2019t mean there will be a consensus on the Federal Reserve as policymakers still appear divided.<\/p>\n

\n

In his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to a rate cut<\/a> at the central bank\u2019s meeting in September after months of maintaining a more hawkish stance, stoking a furious rally on Wall Street<\/a>.<\/p>\n

His emphasis on growing risks to the labor market coupled with a more muted warning on the inflationary impact of tariffs marked a shift in his tone. But not everyone on the Federal Open Market Committee sounded as dovish, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid<\/a>. <\/p>\n

That sets up another FOMC meeting with dissenting votes, after two policymakers voted to lower rates last time, going against the majority that kept rates steady. <\/p>\n

While Powell counts as one vote on the FOMC, he carries outsized influence as the chairman and could prove to be decisive in another split vote.<\/p>\n

\u201cGuidance from a range of Fed speakers was mixed this week, while the July minutes struck a modestly hawkish tone,\u201d JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note on Friday. \u201cA consensus decision in September looks unlikely, and it is Chair Powell who holds the key to the meeting\u2019s outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another contested meeting would mark further deviation from the Fed\u2019s traditional consensus-driven decision-making process, which typically results in unanimous votes.<\/p>\n

But future meetings could see continued division as hawks point to inflation still running above the Fed\u2019s 2% target and other economic data signaling resilience. Indeed, the composition of the Fed is in flux, potentially leading to more push and pull among policymakers. <\/p>\n

Stephen Miran, who has previously blasted the Fed\u2019s consensus-based approach, is set to join the board of governors and add to the dovish votes. Meanwhile, Powell\u2019s term as chair expires in May, and President Donald Trump has threatened to fire Governor Lisa Cook<\/a> if she doesn\u2019t resign.<\/p>\n

Outlook for Fed rate cut cycle<\/h2>\n

And even if the Fed lowers rates next month, the pace of future cuts isn\u2019t clear, providing more fodder for debate at the central bank as Trump-appointed officials push for dovish policy.<\/p>\n

Some Wall Street analysts don\u2019t see an aggressive easing cycle on the horizon, and Powell indicated any rate cuts would happen in a cautious manner. <\/p>\n

\u201cThis message may not be welcomed by an administration looking for immediate aggressive easing,\u201d JPMorgan said.<\/p>\n

Capital Economics chief markets economist John Higgins said in a note Friday that Powell \u201cpoured three cups of cold water\u201d on hopes for a major loosening of Fed policy.<\/p>\n

They include indications that the current rate is only modestly restrictive, that the neutral level may be higher than in the 2010s, and that a revised policy framework would return to a more symmetric approach to upside and downside inflation risks.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said a rate cut in September would be more akin to an \u201cinsurance\u201d move as Powell has previously vowed not to be late on labor market signals.<\/p>\n

In fact, his stance veers away from others at the Fed as he puts greater emphasis on the employment side of the dual mandate while tariffs are expected to cause a short-lived bump in inflation. <\/p>\n

\u201cPowell appears to be setting the stage, assuming the economy performs as he expects and risks do not change appreciably, for a gradual approach to normalizing interest rates,\u201d Sweet said in a note. \u201cIn other words, one cut at every other remaining meeting this year.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Introducing the 2025 Fortune Global 500<\/strong>, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.<\/a><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A consensus view on Wall Street for a rate cut next month doesn\u2019t mean there will be a consensus on the Federal Reserve as policymakers still appear divided. 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