{"id":16335,"date":"2025-08-19T17:35:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T17:35:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=16335"},"modified":"2025-08-19T17:35:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T17:35:48","slug":"sam-altmans-ai-paradox-warning-of-a-bubble-while-raising-trillions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=16335","title":{"rendered":"Sam Altman\u2019s AI paradox: Warning of a bubble while raising trillions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Welcome to Eye on AI! AI reporter Sharon Goldman here, filling in for Jeremy Kahn. In this edition\u2026 Sam Altman\u2019s AI paradox\u2026AI has quietly become a fixture of advertising\u2026Silicon Valley\u2019s AI deals are creating zombie startups<\/em>\u2026sources say<\/em> Nvidia<\/a> working on new AI chip for China that outperforms the H20. <\/em><\/p>\n

\n

I was not invited to Sam Altman\u2019s cozy dinner with reporters in San Francisco last week (whomp whomp), but maybe that\u2019s for the best. I have trouble suppressing exasperated eye rolls when I hear peak Silicon Valley\u2013ironic statements.<\/p>\n

I am not sure I could have controlled myself when the OpenAI CEO said that he believes AI could be in a \u201cbubble,\u201d with market conditions similar to the 1990s dotcom boom. Yes, he reportedly said<\/a>, \u201cinvestors as a whole are overexcited about AI.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Yet, over the same meal, Altman also apparently said he expects OpenAI to spend trillions of dollars on its data center buildout in the \u201cnot very distant future,\u201d adding that \u201cyou should expect a bunch of economists wringing their hands, saying, \u2018This is so crazy, it\u2019s so reckless,\u2019 and we\u2019ll just be like, \u2018You know what? Let us do our thing.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Ummm\u2026what could be more frothy than pitching a multi-trillion-dollar expansion in an industry you\u2019ve just called a bubble? Cue an eye roll reaching the top of my head. Sure, Altman may have been referring to smaller AI startups with sky-high valuations and little to no revenue, but still, the irony is rich.\u00a0It\u2019s particularly notable given the weak GPT-5 rollout earlier this month, which was supposed to mark a leap forward but instead left many disappointed with its routing system<\/a> and lack of breakthrough progress.<\/p>\n

In addition, even as Altman speaks of bubbles, OpenAI itself is raising record sums. In early August, OpenAI secured a whopping $8.3\u202fbillion in new funding at a $300\u202fbillion valuation\u2014part of its plan to raise $40\u202fbillion this year. That figure was five times oversubscribed. <\/a>On top of that, employees are now poised to sell about $6 billion in shares to investors like SoftBank, Dragoneer, and Thrive, pushing the company\u2019s valuation potentially up to $500 billion.<\/p>\n

OpenAI is hardly an outlier in its infrastructure binge. Tech giants are pouring unprecedented sums into AI buildouts<\/a> in 2025: Microsoft<\/a> alone plans to spend $80 billion on AI data centers this fiscal year, while Meta<\/a> is projecting up to $72 billion in AI and infrastructure investments. And on the fundraising front, OpenAI has company too \u2014 rivals like Anthropic are chasing multibillion-dollar rounds of their own.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Wall Street\u2019s biggest bulls, like Wedbush\u2019s Dan Ives, seem unconcerned. Ives said Monday on CNBC\u2019s \u201cClosing Bell\u201d that demand for AI infrastructure has grown 30% to 40% in the last months, calling the capex surge a validation moment for the sector. While he acknowledged \u201csome froth\u201d in parts of the market, he said the AI revolution with autonomous systems is only starting to play out and we are in the \u201csecond inning of a nine-inning game.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

And while a bubble implies an eventual bursting, and all the damage that results, the underlying phenomenon causing a bubble often has real value. The advent of the web in the \u201990s was revolutionary; The bubble was a reflection of the massive opportunities opening up.<\/p>\n

Still, I\u2019d be curious if anyone pressed Altman on the AI paradox\u2014warning of a bubble while simultaneously bragging about OpenAI\u2019s massive fundraising and spending. Perhaps over a glass of bubbly and a sugary sweet dessert? I\u2019d also love to know if he fielded tougher questions on the other big issues looming over the company: its shift to a public benefit corporation (and what that means for the nonprofit), the current state of its Microsoft partnership, and whether its mission of \u201cAGI to benefit all of humanity\u201d still holds now that Altman himself has said AGI \u201cis not a super-useful term.\u201d<\/p>\n

In any case, I\u2019m game for a follow-up chat with Altman & Co (call me!). I\u2019ll bring the bubbly, pop the questions, and do my best to keep the eye rolls at bay.<\/p>\n

Also: In just a few weeks, I will be headed to Park City, Utah, to participate in our annual Brainstorm Tech conference at the Montage Deer Valley!\u00a0<\/strong>Space is limited, so if you\u2019re interested in joining me,\u00a0register here<\/a>. I highly recommend: There\u2019s a fantastic lineup of speakers, including Ashley Kramer, chief revenue officer of OpenAI; John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S.; Tony Xu, founder and CEO of DoorDash; and many, many more!<\/p>\n

With that, here\u2019s more AI news. <\/p>\n

Sharon Goldman<\/strong>
sharon.goldman@fortune.com<\/a>
@sharongoldman<\/a><\/p>\n

FORTUNE ON AI<\/h3>\n

Wall Street isn\u2019t worried about an AI bubble. Sam Altman is<\/a> \u2013 by Beatrice Nolan\n<\/p>\n

MIT report: 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing<\/a> \u2013 by Sheryl Estrada\n<\/p>\n

Silicon Valley talent keeps getting recycled, so this CEO uses a \u2018moneyball\u2019 approach for uncovering hidden AI geniuses in the new era<\/a> \u2013 by Sydney Lake\n<\/p>\n

Waymo experimenting with generative AI, but exec says LiDAR and radar sensors important to self-driving safety \u2018under all conditions\u2019<\/a> \u2013 by Jessica Matthews<\/p>\n

AI IN THE NEWS<\/h3>\n

More shakeups for Meta AI.<\/strong> The New York Times<\/em> reported<\/a> today that Meta is expected to announce that it will split its A.I. division \u2014 which is known as Meta Superintelligence Labs \u2014 into four groups. One will focus on AI research; one on\u00a0 \u201csuperintelligence<\/a>\u201d; another on products; and one on infrastructure such as data centers. According to the article’s anonymous sources, the reorganization “is likely to be the final one for some time,” with moves “aimed at better organizing Meta so it can get to its goal of superintelligence and develop AI products more quickly to compete with others.” The news comes less than two months after CEO Mark Zuckerberg overhauled<\/a> Meta’s entire AI organization, including bringing on Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang as chief AI officer.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

Madison Avenue is starting to love AI.<\/b> According to the <\/span>New York Times<\/span><\/a><\/em>, a<\/span>rtificial intelligence has quietly become a fixture of advertising. What felt novel when Coca-Cola released an AI-generated holiday ad last year is now mainstream: nearly 90% of big-budget marketers are already using\u2014or planning to use\u2014generative AI in video ads. From hyper-realistic backdrops to synthetic voice-overs, the technology is slashing costs and production times, opening TV spots to smaller businesses for the first time. Companies like Shuttlerock and ITV are helping brands replace weeks of work with hours, while tech giants like Meta and TikTok push their own AI ad tools. The shift raises ethical questions about displacing creatives and fooling viewers, but industry leaders say the genie is out of the bottle: AI isn\u2019t just streamlining ad production\u2014it\u2019s reshaping the entire commercial playbook.\n<\/p>\n

Silicon Valley\u2019s AI deals are creating zombie startups: \u2018You hollowed out the organization.\u2019 <\/b>According to <\/span>CNBC<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>Silicon Valley\u2019s AI startup scene is being hollowed out as Big Tech sidesteps antitrust rules with a new playbook: licensing deals and talent raids that gut promising young companies. Windsurf, once in talks to be acquired by OpenAI, collapsed into turmoil after its founders bolted to Google in a $2.4 billion licensing pact; interim CEO Jeff Wang described tearful all-hands meetings as employees realized they\u2019d been left with \u201cnothing.\u201d Similar moves have seen Meta sink $14.3 billion into Scale AI, Microsoft scoop up Inflection\u2019s founders, and Amazon strip talent from Adept and Covariant\u2014leaving behind so-called \u201czombie companies\u201d with little future. While founders and top researchers cash out, investors and rank-and-file staff are often left stranded, sparking growing concern that these quasi-acquisitions not only skirt regulators but also threaten to choke off AI innovation at its source.\n<\/p>\n

Nvidia working on new AI chip for China that outperforms the H20, sources say. <\/b>According to <\/span>Reuters<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>Nvidia is developing a new China-specific AI chip, codenamed B30A, based on its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture. The chip, which could be delivered to Chinese clients for testing as soon as next month, would be more powerful than the current H20 but still fall below U.S. export thresholds\u2014using a single-die design with about half the raw computing power of Nvidia\u2019s flagship B300. The move comes after President Trump signaled possible approval for scaled-down chip sales to China, though regulatory approval is uncertain amid bipartisan concerns in Washington over giving Beijing access to advanced AI hardware. Nvidia argues that retaining Chinese buyers is crucial to prevent defections to domestic rivals like Huawei, even as Chinese regulators cast suspicion on the company\u2019s products.<\/p>\n

EYE ON AI RESEARCH<\/h3>\n

Study finds AI-led interviews improved outcomes. <\/strong>A new study<\/a> looked at what happens when job interviews are run by AI voice agents instead of human recruiters. In a large experiment with 70,000 applicants, people were randomly assigned to be interviewed by a person, by an AI, or given the choice. Surprisingly, AI-led interviews actually improved outcomes: applicants interviewed by AI were 12% more likely to get job offers, 18% more likely to start jobs, and 17% more likely to still be employed after 30 days. Most applicants didn\u2019t mind the change\u201478% even chose the AI when given the option, especially those with lower test scores. The AI also pulled out more useful information from candidates, leading recruiters to rate those interviews higher. Overall, the study shows that AI interviewers can perform just as well as, or even better than, human recruiters\u2014without hurting applicant satisfaction.\n<\/p>\n

AI CALENDAR<\/h3>\n

Sept. 8-10<\/strong>: Fortune Brainstorm Tech, Park City, Utah. Apply to attend\u00a0here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

Oct. 6-10:<\/strong>\u00a0World\u00a0AI<\/span>\u00a0Week, Amsterdam<\/p>\n

Oct. 21-22:<\/strong> TedAI San Francisco. Apply to attend here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

Dec. 2-7:<\/strong>\u00a0NeurIPS, San Diego\n<\/p>\n

Dec. 8-9:\u00a0<\/strong>Fortune Brainstorm AI San Francisco. Apply to attend here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

BRAIN FOOD<\/h3>\n

Do AI chatbots need to be protected from harm?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

AI lab Anthropic has introduced a new safety measure<\/a> in its latest Claude models, which empowers the AI to terminate conversations in extreme cases of harmful or abusive interaction. The feature activates only after repeated redirections fail\u2014typically for content requests involving sexual exploitation of minors or facilitation of large-scale violence. The company is notably framing this as a safeguard not principally for users, but for the model\u2019s own \u201cAI welfare,\u201d reflecting an exploratory stance on the machine\u2019s potential moral status.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, the idea of granting AI moral status is contentious. Jonathan Birch, a philosophy professor at the London School of Economics, told The Guardian<\/em> he welcomed Anthropic\u2019s move for sparking a public debate about AI sentience\u2014a topic he said many in the industry would rather suppress. At the same time, he warned that the decision risks misleading users into believing the chatbot is more real than it is.\n<\/p>\n

Others argue that focusing on AI welfare distracts from urgent human concerns. For example, while Claude is designed to end only the most extreme abusive conversations, it will not intervene in cases of imminent self-harm\u2014even though a New York Times<\/em> opinion piece yesterday urged such safeguards, written by a mother who discovered her daughter\u2019s ChatGPT conversations only after her daughter\u2019s suicide.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Welcome to Eye on AI! AI reporter Sharon Goldman here, filling in for Jeremy Kahn. In this edition\u2026 Sam Altman\u2019s AI paradox\u2026AI has quietly become a fixture of advertising\u2026Silicon Valley\u2019s AI deals are creating zombie startups\u2026sources say Nvidia working on new AI chip for China that outperforms the H20. I was not invited to Sam […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":775,"featured_media":16336,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nSam Altman\u2019s AI paradox: Warning of a bubble while raising trillions | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sam Altman says AI might be in a bubble\u2014then touts trillions for OpenAI\u2019s buildout. 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Goldman","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=775"},"uagb_comment_info":3,"uagb_excerpt":"Welcome to Eye on AI! AI reporter Sharon Goldman here, filling in for Jeremy Kahn. In this edition\u2026 Sam Altman\u2019s AI paradox\u2026AI has quietly become a fixture of advertising\u2026Silicon Valley\u2019s AI deals are creating zombie startups\u2026sources say Nvidia working on new AI chip for China that outperforms the H20. I was not invited to Sam…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/775"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}