{"id":15781,"date":"2025-07-04T05:35:48","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T05:35:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=15781"},"modified":"2025-07-04T05:35:48","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T05:35:48","slug":"white-knuckles-and-massive-unknowns-ahead-of-trumps-july-9th-tariff-deadline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=15781","title":{"rendered":"White knuckles and \u2018massive unknowns\u2019 ahead of Trump\u2019s July 9th tariff deadline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The countdown to the 90-day freeze on sweeping Liberation Day tariffs expires next week, and President Donald Trump\u2019s administration is a far cry from its \u201c90 deals in 90 days\u201d goal.<\/p>\n

\n

Trump\u2019s self-imposed July 9 deadline follows his sweeping reciprocal tariffs address in April, which sparked global panic and caused the S&P to shed<\/a> $5 trillion in value in about two days. As next week\u2019s deadline approaches, the Trump administration has announced new trade agreements with countries including China, the U.K., Vietnam and Indonesia\u2014but details about these agreements are scant, and no word of further deals being made yet has left U.S. consumers and investors with little clarity.<\/p>\n

Investors have grown accustomed to the \u201cTACO<\/a>,\u201d or Trump Always Chickens Out trade, where markets fall when Trump announces steep tariffs on imports and then jump back up when he pauses them. But experts say this pattern can\u2019t last forever.<\/p>\n

\u201cTime\u2019s ticking to get deal frameworks in place,\u201d Wedbush Securities Senior Equity Research Analyst Dan Ives told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cEven though the market has shrugged it off, for businesses that operate every day, there\u2019s massive unknowns and a lot of white knuckles. It\u2019s a key week and a key few months ahead [for] tariffs.\u201d<\/p>\n

Economists already expect current tariff rates to increase costs<\/a> on consumer goods this summer\u2014these prices could increase further after July 9. Pantheon Macroeconomics economists wrote in a note on Thursday that there is an \u201cimminent risk\u201d of a temporary jump in tariffs rates across the board as the deadline nears. If imposed, reciprocal rates could boost consumer prices from tariffs to 1.5% from 1% under the current tariff rates, they wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But experts are skeptical that Trump will maintain any reciprocal rates imposed next week, as he\u2019s lowered rates in the past as talks with trade partners have continued. Trump and China formalized a rare earth deal in June, after Trump briefly charged<\/a> 125% duties on Chinese imports in April.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the end, however, we expect any ratcheting-up of the tariffs to be short-lived. Other countries will respond forcefully; they all saw Mr. Trump fold to pressure from China in May,\u201d the Pantheon economists wrote. \u201cThe weaker economic backdrop compared to April and the further decline in the president\u2019s approval rating since then also suggest an eventual climbdown is likely.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some experts even anticipate little change as the deadline approaches, as current pacts with major trade partners still need to be refined.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo far we have a tiny number of agreements which are themselves not very detailed,\u201d UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan told Fortune<\/em> in an email Thursday. \u201cThe Chinese \u2018agreement\u2019 is simply a partial de-escalation of an unsustainable deal. The UK \u2018agreement\u2019 is partially implemented with plenty of disagreement on the outstanding details. The deadline is likely to serve as a point from which further extensions or continuation of negotiations will be announced.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s credibility in question<\/strong><\/p>\n

Markets have grown accustomed to Trump walking back on extreme tariffs threats. Now, experts say Trump\u2019s next moves will inform whether countries in negotiations with the U.S. have a similar mentality.<\/p>\n

\u201c[Trump] certainly doesn\u2019t want to be accused of chickening out because it would hurt his credibility in any future negotiations,\u201d Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Group financial markets economist, told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cThe focus is always on showing that he can in fact cut you off.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wizman does expect some deals to be announced, though, which he says will be touted by the administration.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump can always come out and say, \u2018We have a deal,\u2019 but it will be a deal that\u2019s very narrow in scope. So they\u2019ll segregate the things that they have agreed on and say that\u2019s a deal like with China,\u201d Wizman said. \u201cThere\u2019s a whole bunch of ways this can go right, and it\u2019s also a whole bunch of ways it can be spun.\u201d<\/p>\n

Experts say to expect continued talks past July 9 with many major trading partners like the EU.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe deadline is probably not going to change very much\u2014mostly the status quo will be retained while negotiations continue with more or less vigour depending on the importance of the bilateral relationship,\u201d UBS\u2019 Donovan wrote, \u201cUncertainty about the ultimate outcome will persist. If there is any attempt to escalate, investors are likely to shrug their shoulders and wait for U.S. President Trump to retreat.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trade with China<\/strong><\/p>\n

China accounts for about 37.6% of U.S. imports this year, according to supply chain intelligence platform project44. This is a 0.1% increase from 2024.<\/p>\n

Still, Wizman says whatever trade agreements to come in the near future may look to lock out China from moving capital in and out of other countries\u2019 supply chains. He says this may be a focus in trade agreements with countries like Japan, South Korea and the EU.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you can get these countries to depend on bilateral trade with the U.S. and depend less on China, then you basically bolt these countries into the U.S. orbit permanently,\u201d Wizman said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The countdown to the 90-day freeze on sweeping Liberation Day tariffs expires next week, and President Donald Trump\u2019s administration is a far cry from its \u201c90 deals in 90 days\u201d goal. Trump\u2019s self-imposed July 9 deadline follows his sweeping reciprocal tariffs address in April, which sparked global panic and caused the S&P to shed $5 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":802,"featured_media":15782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nWhite knuckles and \u2018massive unknowns\u2019 ahead of Trump\u2019s July 9th tariff deadline | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Trump\u2019s next moves could impact how countries go about the next round of trade talks\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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Paoli","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=802"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"The countdown to the 90-day freeze on sweeping Liberation Day tariffs expires next week, and President Donald Trump\u2019s administration is a far cry from its \u201c90 deals in 90 days\u201d goal. Trump\u2019s self-imposed July 9 deadline follows his sweeping reciprocal tariffs address in April, which sparked global panic and caused the S&P to shed $5…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/802"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15781\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}