{"id":13936,"date":"2025-01-25T12:20:49","date_gmt":"2025-01-25T12:20:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=13936"},"modified":"2025-01-25T12:20:49","modified_gmt":"2025-01-25T12:20:49","slug":"the-cause-of-the-la-fires-might-never-be-known-but-ai-is-hunting-for-clues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=13936","title":{"rendered":"The Cause of the LA Fires Might Never Be Known\u2014but AI Is Hunting for Clues"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Karen Short, a research ecologist with the Forest Service who contributed to the study and maintains a historical database of national wildfire reports, says understanding why they start is essential for preventing them and educating the public. Strategic prevention appears to work: According to the National Fire Protection Association, house fires in the US have decreased by <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/www.nfpa.org\/~\/media\/Files\/News%20and%20Research\/Fire%20statistics%20and%20reports\/US%20Fire%20Problem\/osNFPAEcosystemFireSafetyReport2021.ashx?utm_source=emil&amp;utm_medium=email_medium&amp;utm_campaign=emil0358&amp;utm_content=mbrs&amp;order_src=e827\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.nfpa.org\/~\/media\/Files\/News%20and%20Research\/Fire%20statistics%20and%20reports\/US%20Fire%20Problem\/osNFPAEcosystemFireSafetyReport2021.ashx?utm_source=emil&amp;utm_medium=email_medium&amp;utm_campaign=emil0358&amp;utm_content=mbrs&amp;order_src=e827&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nfpa.org\/~\/media\/Files\/News%20and%20Research\/Fire%20statistics%20and%20reports\/US%20Fire%20Problem\/osNFPAEcosystemFireSafetyReport2021.ashx?utm_source=emil&amp;utm_medium=email_medium&amp;utm_campaign=emil0358&amp;utm_content=mbrs&amp;order_src=e827\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">nearly half since the 1980s<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">In 2024, Short expanded her wildfire archive to include more information useful to investigators, such as weather, elevation, population density, and a fire\u2019s timing. \u201cWe need to have those things captured in the data to track them over time. We still track things from the 1900s,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">According to Short, wildfire trends across the western United States have shifted with human activity. In recent decades, ignitions from power lines, fireworks, and firearms have become more common, in contrast with the railroad- and sawmill-caused fires that were once more common.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"AssetEmbedWrapper-eVDQiB byBkf asset-embed\">\n<div class=\"AssetEmbedAssetContainer-eJxoAx dBHGoQ asset-embed__asset-container\"><span class=\"SpanWrapper-umhxW kGxnNB responsive-asset AssetEmbedResponsiveAsset-cXBNxi eCxVQK asset-embed__responsive-asset\"><picture class=\"ResponsiveImagePicture-cWuUZO dUOtEa AssetEmbedResponsiveAsset-cXBNxi eCxVQK asset-embed__responsive-asset responsive-image\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Image may contain Sign Symbol and Advertisement\" class=\"ResponsiveImageContainer-eybHBd fptoWY responsive-image__image lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_1600%2Cc_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_120,c_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg 120w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_240,c_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg 240w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_320,c_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg 320w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_640,c_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg 640w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_960,c_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg 960w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_1280,c_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/67925c4c052044c5d6f2eda3\/master\/w_1600,c_limit\/GettyImages-1241632683.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><\/noscript><\/picture><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"CaptionWrapper-jSZdqE fJvQtP caption AssetEmbedCaption-fNQBPI dDrfgT asset-embed__caption\"><span class=\"BaseWrap-sc-gjQpdd BaseText-ewhhUZ CaptionText-bHjzlu iUEiRd kVUvEC iXWezO caption__text\"><\/p>\n<p>Signage warns against the use of illegal fireworks in Pasadena, in June 2022.<\/p>\n<p><\/span><span class=\"BaseWrap-sc-gjQpdd BaseText-ewhhUZ CaptionCredit-ejegDm iUEiRd isTgyB fNaHcW caption__credit\">Photograph: David McNew\/Getty Images<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The study found that vehicles and equipment are likely the number one culprit, potentially causing 21 percent of wildfires without a known cause since 1992. Last fall, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fire.ca.gov\/incidents\/2024\/9\/9\/airport-fire\" target=\"_blank\">Airport Fire<\/a> in California was just such an event, burning over 23,000 acres. And an increasing number of fires are the result of arson and accidental ignition\u2014whether from smoking, gunfire, or campfires\u2014that make up another 18 percent. In 2017, an Arizona couple\u2019s choice of a blue smoke-spewing firework for a baby gender reveal party lit the <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2018\/11\/27\/us\/arizona-gender-reveal-party-sawmill-wildfire-trnd\/index.html#:~:text=Shot%20on%20April%2023%2C%202017,immediately%20igniting%20the%20surrounding%20brush.\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2018\/11\/27\/us\/arizona-gender-reveal-party-sawmill-wildfire-trnd\/index.html#:~:text=Shot%20on%20April%2023%2C%202017,immediately%20igniting%20the%20surrounding%20brush.&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2018\/11\/27\/us\/arizona-gender-reveal-party-sawmill-wildfire-trnd\/index.html#:~:text=Shot%20on%20April%2023%2C%202017,immediately%20igniting%20the%20surrounding%20brush.\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Sawmill Fire<\/a>, torching close to 47,000 acres.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">But these results aren\u2019t definitive. Machine-learning models such as those used for the study are trained to predict the likelihood of a given fire\u2019s cause, rather than prove that a particular ignition happened. Although the study\u2019s model showed 90 percent accuracy selecting between lightning or human activity as the ignition source when tested on fires with known causes, it had more difficulty determining exactly which of 11 possible human behaviors were to blame, only getting it right half the time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Yavar Pourmohamad, a data science PhD researcher at Boise State University who led the study, says that knowing the probable causes of a fire could help authorities warn people in high-risk areas before a blaze actually starts. \u201cIt could give people a hint of what is most important to be careful of,\u201d he said. \u201cMaybe in the future, AI can become a trustworthy tool for real-world action.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Synolakis, the USC professor, says Pourmohamad and Short\u2019s research is important for understanding how risks are changing. He advocates for proactive actions like burying power lines underground where they can\u2019t be buffeted by winds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">A <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/www.publish.csiro.au\/wf\/Fulltext\/WF18026#F10\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.publish.csiro.au\/wf\/Fulltext\/WF18026#F10&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/www.publish.csiro.au\/wf\/Fulltext\/WF18026#F10\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2018 study<\/a> found that fires set off by downed power lines\u2014such as the Camp Fire in Paradise, California, that same year\u2014have been increasing. Although the authors note that while power lines do not account for many fires, they\u2019re associated with larger swaths of burned land.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">\u201cWe have to really make sure that our communities are more resilient to climate change,\u201d Synolakis said. \u201cAs we\u2019re seeing with the extreme conditions in Los Angeles, fire suppression alone doesn\u2019t do it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Karen Short, a research ecologist with the Forest Service who contributed to the study and maintains a historical database of national wildfire reports, says understanding why they start is essential for preventing them and educating the public. Strategic prevention appears to work: According to the National Fire Protection Association, house fires in the US have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":699,"featured_media":13937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[703],"tags":[1095,895,894,893,1097,3371,890,2316],"class_list":["post-13936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-california","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-desk","tag-environment","tag-los-angeles","tag-science","tag-wildfires"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Cause of the LA Fires Might Never Be Known\u2014but AI Is Hunting for Clues | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta 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Mulkey","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=699"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Karen Short, a research ecologist with the Forest Service who contributed to the study and maintains a historical database of national wildfire reports, says understanding why they start is essential for preventing them and educating the public. Strategic prevention appears to work: According to the National Fire Protection Association, house fires in the US have&hellip;","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/699"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13936\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}