{"id":12493,"date":"2024-08-31T11:50:47","date_gmt":"2024-08-31T11:50:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=12493"},"modified":"2024-08-31T11:50:47","modified_gmt":"2024-08-31T11:50:47","slug":"a-rare-coincidence-of-la-nina-events-will-weaken-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=12493","title":{"rendered":"A Rare Coincidence of La Ni\u00f1a Events Will Weaken Hurricane Season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"paywall\">While much weaker than their Pacific counterpart, Atlantic Ni\u00f1as can, however, partially counteract La Ni\u00f1as by weakening summer winds that help drive the upwelling that cools the eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall\">Why Are Both Happening Now?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall\">In July and August 2024, meteorologists <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/atlantic-nina-on-the-verge-of-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention\/\">noted cooling<\/a> that appeared to be the development of an Atlantic Ni\u00f1a along the equator. The winds at the ocean surface had been weak through most of the summer, and sea surface temperatures there were <a href=\"https:\/\/coralreefwatch.noaa.gov\/product\/5km\/index_5km_ssta.php\">quite warm until early June<\/a>, so signs of an Atlantic Ni\u00f1a emerging were a surprise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">At the same time, waters along the equator in the eastern Pacific were also cooling, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\">La Ni\u00f1a conditions expected<\/a> there by October or November.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"AssetEmbedWrapper-eVDQiB byBkf asset-embed\">\n<div class=\"AssetEmbedAssetContainer-eJxoAx dBHGoQ asset-embed__asset-container\"><span class=\"SpanWrapper-umhxW kGxnNB responsive-asset AssetEmbedResponsiveAsset-cXBNxi eCxVQK asset-embed__responsive-asset\"><picture class=\"ResponsiveImagePicture-cWuUZO dUOtEa AssetEmbedResponsiveAsset-cXBNxi eCxVQK asset-embed__responsive-asset responsive-image\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Image may contain Chart Plot Map Atlas and Diagram\" class=\"ResponsiveImageContainer-eybHBd fptoWY responsive-image__image lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_1600%2Cc_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_120,c_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg 120w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_240,c_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg 240w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_320,c_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg 320w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_640,c_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg 640w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_960,c_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg 960w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_1280,c_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg 1280w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/66d079ce47cadaf460cc2ea0\/master\/w_1600,c_limit\/file-20240827-18-el3bdp.jpeg 1600w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><\/noscript><\/picture><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"CaptionWrapper-jSZdqE fJvQtP caption AssetEmbedCaption-fNQBPI dDrfgT asset-embed__caption\"><span class=\"BaseWrap-sc-gjQpdd BaseText-ewhhUZ CaptionText-bHjzlu iUEiRd kVUvEC iXWezO caption__text\"><\/p>\n<p>A map of sea surface temperature anomalies shows cooling along the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific regions, but much warmer than average temperatures in the Caribbean.<\/p>\n<p><\/span><span class=\"BaseWrap-sc-gjQpdd BaseText-ewhhUZ CaptionCredit-ejegDm iUEiRd isTgyB fNaHcW caption__credit\">Photograph: NOAA Coral Reef Watch<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Getting a Pacific-Atlantic Ni\u00f1a combination is <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/event-tracker\/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/event-tracker\/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/event-tracker\/atlantic-nina-verge-developing-heres-why-we-should-pay-attention\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rare but not impossible<\/a>. It\u2019s like finding two different pendulums that are weakly coupled to swing in opposite directions moving together in time. The combinations of La Ni\u00f1a and Atlantic Ni\u00f1o, or El Ni\u00f1o and Atlantic Ni\u00f1a are more common.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall\">Good News or Bad for Hurricane Season?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall\">An Atlantic Ni\u00f1a may initially suggest good news for those living in hurricane-prone areas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Cooler than average waters off the coast of Africa can <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-023-39467-5\">suppress the formation of African easterly waves<\/a>. These are <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/glossarytest.ametsoc.net\/wiki\/African_Easterly_Wave\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/glossarytest.ametsoc.net\/wiki\/African_Easterly_Wave&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/glossarytest.ametsoc.net\/wiki\/African_Easterly_Wave\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">clusters of thunderstorm activity<\/a> that can form into tropical disturbances and eventually tropical storms or hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Tropical storms <a href=\"https:\/\/oceanexplorer.noaa.gov\/facts\/hurricanes.html\">draw energy from the process of evaporating water<\/a> associated with warm sea surface temperatures. So, cooling in the tropical Atlantic could weaken this process. That would leave less energy for the thunderstorms, which would reduce the probability of a tropical cyclone forming.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">However, the NOAA takes all factors into account when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/outlooks\/hurricane.shtml\">it updates its Atlantic hurricane season outlook<\/a>, released in early August, and it still anticipates an extremely active 2024 season. <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/climatecenter.fsu.edu\/topics\/hurricanes\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/climatecenter.fsu.edu\/topics\/hurricanes&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/climatecenter.fsu.edu\/topics\/hurricanes\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Tropical storm season typically peaks<\/a> in early to mid-September.<\/p>\n<figure data-testid=\"IframeEmbed\" class=\"IframeEmbedWrapper-sc-dRedg kSrFfN iframe-embed\"\/>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Two reasons are behind the busy forecast: The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/outlooks\/Slide4.JPG\">near record-breaking warm<\/a> sea surface temperatures in much of the North Atlantic can strengthen hurricanes. And the expected development of a La Ni\u00f1a in the Pacific tends to weaken <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-is-wind-shear-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-how-it-can-disrupt-air-travel-and-tear-apart-hurricanes-213527\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-is-wind-shear-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-how-it-can-disrupt-air-travel-and-tear-apart-hurricanes-213527&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-is-wind-shear-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-how-it-can-disrupt-air-travel-and-tear-apart-hurricanes-213527\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">wind shear<\/a>\u2014the change in wind speed with height that can tear apart hurricanes. La Ni\u00f1a\u2019s much stronger effects can override any impacts associated with the Atlantic Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall\">Exacerbating the Problem: Global Warming<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The past two years have seen <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/climatereanalyzer.org\/clim\/sst_daily\/\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/climatereanalyzer.org\/clim\/sst_daily\/&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/climatereanalyzer.org\/clim\/sst_daily\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">exceptionally high ocean temperatures<\/a> in the Atlantic and around much of the world\u2019s oceans. The two Ni\u00f1as are likely to contribute some cooling relief for certain regions, but it may not last long.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">In addition to these cycles, the global warming trend caused by rising greenhouse gas emissions is raising the baseline temperatures and can <a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/earth\/climate-change\/a-force-of-nature-hurricanes-in-a-changing-climate\/\">fuel major hurricanes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure data-testid=\"IframeEmbed\" class=\"IframeEmbedWrapper-sc-dRedg kSrFfN iframe-embed\"\/><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While much weaker than their Pacific counterpart, Atlantic Ni\u00f1as can, however, partially counteract La Ni\u00f1as by weakening summer winds that help drive the upwelling that cools the eastern Pacific. Why Are Both Happening Now? In July and August 2024, meteorologists noted cooling that appeared to be the development of an Atlantic Ni\u00f1a along the equator. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":574,"featured_media":12494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[703],"tags":[894,1097,1335,1036,890,2628,1905],"class_list":["post-12493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-extreme-weather","tag-oceans","tag-science","tag-the-conversation","tag-weather"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Rare Coincidence of La Ni\u00f1a 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Bracco, Zachary Handlos","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=574"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"While much weaker than their Pacific counterpart, Atlantic Ni\u00f1as can, however, partially counteract La Ni\u00f1as by weakening summer winds that help drive the upwelling that cools the eastern Pacific. 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