{"id":12299,"date":"2024-08-14T18:36:45","date_gmt":"2024-08-14T18:36:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=12299"},"modified":"2024-08-14T18:36:45","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T18:36:45","slug":"were-close-to-a-6-mortgage-rate-reality-but-it-isnt-enough-to-jump-start-the-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=12299","title":{"rendered":"We\u2019re close to a 6% mortgage rate reality,\u00a0but it\u00a0isn\u2019t enough to jump-start the housing market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Lower mortgage rates should ameliorate our housing situation<\/a>, in theory. But where mortgage rates are at the moment, and where they\u2019re expected to go in the next year or so, isn\u2019t enough for that to happen, according to Capital Economics.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Anxiety about a potential recession<\/a> and sluggish economic data<\/a> are leading to expectations about lowered interest rates and cheaper home loan costs. But lower rates alone won\u2019t resuscitate the housing market.<\/a> Rates are sitting at 6.47%, high enough that people don\u2019t want to list their homes for sale, and costly enough to keep would-be homebuyers<\/a> on the sidelines.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are skeptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 economist, Thomas Ryan, recently wrote<\/a>. \u201cRates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new buyers remain sidelined due to historically stretched affordability. We remain confident that the recovery in home sales will be muted.\u201d<\/p>\n

Throughout the pandemic, mortgage rates<\/a> were around 3%, although they fluctuated, moving higher and lower at some points. It fueled a housing boom. People could live anywhere they wanted because of remote work, and cheap money<\/a> only made it that much easier. But when inflation ran hot, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, mortgage rates followed. People stopped buying and selling homes, and the housing world froze. Last year, existing home sales<\/a> fell to their lowest point in almost 30 years and are still depressed. But mortgage rates are falling on the back of cooler economic data and some fears of a recession; they fell to their lowest level<\/a> in more than a year last week. Still, the latest decline in mortgage rates doesn\u2019t seem to be enough to bring everyone back.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And it isn\u2019t simply mortgage rates. Home prices rose substantially throughout the pandemic, and their pace of inflation has only begun to slow<\/a>. All around affordability is shot<\/a> because the cost of buying a home today is so much more than it was only four years ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That isn\u2019t to say a drop in mortgage rates isn\u2019t welcome\u2014it is. \u201cLower mortgage rates will breathe some life into the market,\u201d Ryan wrote. Last year when mortgage rates fell, home purchase applications rose, he said. But it was short-lived because borrowing costs rose again and loan applications dipped.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe may get more of a response from buyers and sellers this time around given that rates have fallen to a lower level, and more time has elapsed,\u201d he said. \u201cBased on past form, however, it seems that borrowing costs would have to fall below 5% to see a full recovery in home buying.\u201d<\/p>\n

So Ryan\u2019s magic mortgage rate<\/a> number is lower than let\u2019s say Compass\u2019 cofounder and chief executive who recently said it was anything below 6%. Not to mention, Capital Economics doesn\u2019t see that happening anytime soon. By the end of the year, the research firm estimates that mortgage rates will be closer to 6.5%, and next year, it expects them to be around 6%. Either way, it seems we\u2019re coming closer to the 6% mortgage rate reality<\/a> the National Association of Realtors\u2019 chief economist recently warned of.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Still, Ryan called the drop in mortgage rates \u201ca turning point for the housing market,\u201d in that they probably won\u2019t go back to a 7% handle and existing home sales should be slightly better. But mortgage rates aren\u2019t going back to their pandemic-era lows, not unless the entire economy falls hard.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cOnly a severe recession could prompt a return to the 3% mortgage rates of the pandemic-era housing frenzy, as the Federal Reserve would be forced to cut interest rates a lot more than what is currently priced into financial markets,\u201d Ryan wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He continued: \u201cSuch a scenario, however, would not support a robust recovery in home sales, as it would involve a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions with significant job losses. In fact, depending on the severity of the recession, this would either result in an even shallower recovery or possibly a further fall in sales. Nevertheless, we judge that a soft landing is the most likely outcome for the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Recommended Newsletter: <\/strong>CEO Daily provides key context for the news leaders need to know from across the world of business. Every weekday morning, more than 125,000 readers trust CEO Daily for insights about\u2013and from inside\u2013the C-suite. Subscribe Now<\/a>.<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lower mortgage rates should ameliorate our housing situation, in theory. But where mortgage rates are at the moment, and where they\u2019re expected to go in the next year or so, isn\u2019t enough for that to happen, according to Capital Economics.\u00a0 Anxiety about a potential recession and sluggish economic data are leading to expectations about lowered […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":275,"featured_media":12300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nWe\u2019re close to a 6% mortgage rate reality,\u00a0but it\u00a0isn\u2019t enough to jump-start the housing market | Unlock Informed Choices with Us<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cIt seems that borrowing costs would have to fall below 5% to see 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