{"id":12032,"date":"2024-07-26T10:20:50","date_gmt":"2024-07-26T10:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=12032"},"modified":"2024-07-26T10:20:50","modified_gmt":"2024-07-26T10:20:50","slug":"how-soon-might-the-atlantic-ocean-break-two-sibling-scientists-found-an-answer-and-shook-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=12032","title":{"rendered":"How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean Break? Two Sibling Scientists Found an Answer\u2014and Shook the World"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"paywall\">What triggered the jumps? As Broecker guessed in the late \u201980s and (after 30-some years of debate) many scientists now agree: abrupt, dramatic changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">That the climate could change violently had huge implications. As more carbon was being released into the atmosphere, Broecker and other scientists were getting increasingly anxious that it wasn\u2019t degrading the planet in only the steady, humdrum, \u201cup goes the heat\u201d kind of way. They worried that humans were pushing the climate toward a big jump. \u201cOur climate system has proven it can do very strange things,\u201d he wrote in 1997. \u201cWe\u2019re entering dangerous territory and provoking an ornery beast.\u201d What remained was a very important question: Could a leap be predicted?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">In the 1990s, Ditlevsen found plain old climate change kind of dull, but this\u2014this was exciting. He started analyzing the ice core record in search of warning signs of a coming jump. He was hunting for patterns that preceded those 25 cataclysms\u2014signatures in the oxygen-18 content, say, or in calcium. Anything that reliably preceded an abrupt change. But the hints, if they existed at all, were easy to miss. Finding them was ultimately a problem of statistics\u2014what\u2019s a real signal, what\u2019s mere noise. At times, Ditlevsen enlisted his dad, a math and engineering professor at another Danish university. (The father-son pair cowrote a paper in 2009 on rapid climate shifts.) In all those years, Ditlevsen never found an early-warning sign in the ice core data.<\/p>\n<div class=\"GenericCalloutWrapper-tojWn iNCMJD callout--has-top-border\" data-testid=\"GenericCallout\">\n<figure class=\"AssetEmbedWrapper-eVDQiB byBkf asset-embed\">\n<div class=\"AssetEmbedAssetContainer-eJxoAx dBHGoQ asset-embed__asset-container\"><span class=\"SpanWrapper-umhxW kGxnNB responsive-asset AssetEmbedResponsiveAsset-cXBNxi eCxVQK asset-embed__responsive-asset\"><picture class=\"ResponsiveImagePicture-cWuUZO dUOtEa AssetEmbedResponsiveAsset-cXBNxi eCxVQK asset-embed__responsive-asset responsive-image\"><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Image may contain Adult Person Box Device Appliance and Electrical Device\" class=\"ResponsiveImageContainer-eybHBd fptoWY responsive-image__image lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" data-src=\"https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_1600%2Cc_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_120,c_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg 120w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_240,c_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg 240w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_320,c_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg 320w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_640,c_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg 640w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_960,c_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg 960w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_1280,c_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/media.wired.com\/photos\/669ee1da2095eeaf9f3dd6d5\/master\/w_1600,c_limit\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"100vw\"\/><\/noscript><\/picture><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"CaptionWrapper-jSZdqE fJvQtP caption AssetEmbedCaption-fNQBPI dDrfgT asset-embed__caption\"><span class=\"BaseWrap-sc-gjQpdd BaseText-ewhhUZ CaptionText-bHjzlu iUEiRd kVUvEC iXWezO caption__text\"><\/p>\n<p>Peter Ditlevsen lifts a segment of an ice core, at the Niels Bohr Institute.<\/p>\n<p><\/span><span class=\"BaseWrap-sc-gjQpdd BaseText-ewhhUZ CaptionCredit-ejegDm iUEiRd isTgyB fNaHcW caption__credit\">Photograph: Emilie Laerke<\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"paywall\">But elsewhere around the planet, scientists were amassing evidence that specific parts of the climate system were nearing dangerous thresholds and big transitions of their own: the melting of the Greenland ice sheets (7 meters of sea level rise) and the Antarctic ice sheets (another 60 meters), the death of the Amazon rainforest (incalculable loss of biodiversity), the catastrophic disruption of monsoons (droughts affecting billions of people).<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">The International Panel on Climate Change, the 200-or-so grand arbiters of the climate canon, was devoting more pages in its reports to this type of risk. And scientists were converging around language for what they were seeing. They called the thresholds \u201ctipping points.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\"><strong><span class=\"lead-in-text-callout\">Tipping points are<\/span><\/strong> absolutely everywhere. Throw water on a fire, and the flames will shrink but recover. Dump enough water on and you\u2019ll cross a threshold and snuff it out. Tip a chair and it\u2019ll wobble before settling back onto its four feet. Push harder, and it topples. Birth is a tipping point. So is death.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Once you\u2019ve pushed a system to its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/climate-tipping-point\/\">tipping point<\/a>, you\u2019ve removed all brakes. No exit. As one 500-page <a data-offer-url=\"https:\/\/global-tipping-points.org\/\" class=\"external-link\" data-event-click=\"{&quot;element&quot;:&quot;ExternalLink&quot;,&quot;outgoingURL&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/global-tipping-points.org\/&quot;}\" href=\"https:\/\/global-tipping-points.org\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a> recently put it, climate tipping points \u201cpose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity.\u201d Crossing one, the report goes on, \u201cwill severely damage our planet\u2019s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">In 2019 the European Union launched a project on climate tipping points. \u00adFifty-some scientists from 15 countries got involved. One big goal: to assess the near-future risk of, say, an AMOC shutdown or the Amazon turning into a savanna. Ditlevsen signed on as the project\u2019s leader. His partner was Niklas Boers, a climate physicist at the Technical University of Munich in Germany.<\/p>\n<aside aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"PullQuoteEmbedWrapper-sc-EoVjf kgVYDs\">\n<div class=\"PullQuoteEmbedContent-sc-kTcfhx dzGCEG\">\n<p class=\"paywall\">In the panelists\u2019 view, the AMOC had less than a 1-in-10 chance of collapsing before 2100. One in 10. Those odds didn\u2019t strike him as \u201cvery unlikely.\u201d Russian roulette is one in six, and we all agree that\u2019s a bad idea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Back in his PhD days, Boers had been pursuing a pure math degree before ditching it\u2014\u201cI don\u2019t want to say it was meaningless, but I wasn\u2019t interested,\u201d he says. The climate, though, had real stakes. \u201cThe whole climate system is so complex that it\u2019s where the beauty of math, of probability theory and dynamical systems and complexity theory, can really play out.\u201d He had been investigating early warning signs in a variety of datasets, and he decided to dig into the AMOC.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall\">Much as you have a natural walking speed, the AMOC has a preferred flow rate. It\u2019s measured in Sverdrups, named after the Norwegian oceanographer Harald Sverdrup, who in the first half of the 20th century modernized the study of oceans with a sweeping textbook and curriculum. The rate varies by location, but these days at a latitude of 26 degrees north, the flow is 17 Sverdrups, or 17 million cubic meters per second. The Sverdrups can swing up or down, but over time the flow returns to that preferred rate. When a system approaches a tipping point, though, the <em>character<\/em> of the fluctuations changes. With the AMOC, you might see the flow rate increasingly struggle to regain its equilibrium. The rate might wander farther and farther away from the comfy baseline. And the system might take longer to settle back into its routine state. These features\u2014the greater meandering, the slower return to home base\u2014are an obsession of tipping-point mathematicians. If you were to plot the data for a system that\u2019s about to tip, you\u2019d see the data points first follow a nice, predictable path; then the path gets jittery, and then it goes off on wide, whiplashing swings. The system is becoming less stable, taking longer to recover. You can almost feel sorry for it. You can sense a sort of sickness.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What triggered the jumps? As Broecker guessed in the late \u201980s and (after 30-some years of debate) many scientists now agree: abrupt, dramatic changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. That the climate could change violently had huge implications. As more carbon was being released into the atmosphere, Broecker and other scientists were getting increasingly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":535,"featured_media":12033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[703],"tags":[895,2358,1204,2246,1036],"class_list":["post-12032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technology","tag-climate","tag-global-warming","tag-longreads","tag-maps","tag-oceans"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean Break? 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Two Sibling Scientists Found an Answer\u2014and Shook the World"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/","name":"Topat10.com","description":"Your Trusted Source for Honest Reviews on the Best Online Services, Products, and Websites &ndash; Unlock Informed Choices with Us","alternateName":"Topat10","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/#\/schema\/person\/76bedcc03cfa8492c031e77fb46803af","name":"Sandra Upson","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Sandra Upson"},"url":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=535"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg",1600,1067,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-300x200.jpg",300,200,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-768x512.jpg",768,512,true],"large":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-1024x683.jpg",1024,683,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-1536x1024.jpg",1536,1024,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg",1600,1067,false],"mailpoet_newsletter_max":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg",1320,880,false],"woocommerce_thumbnail":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-380x380.jpg",380,380,true],"woocommerce_single":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-1000x1067.jpg",1000,1067,true],"woocommerce_gallery_thumbnail":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-120x120.jpg",120,120,true],"shareblock_justify":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-800x534.jpg",800,534,true],"shareblock_small":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-120x120.jpg",120,120,true],"shareblock_largeslider":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009.jpg",1600,1067,false],"shareblock_featurelarge":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-1000x650.jpg",1000,650,true],"shareblock_midlarge":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-760x600.jpg",760,600,true],"shareblock_slidergrid":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-500x350.jpg",500,350,true],"shareblock_featurelist":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-500x368.jpg",500,368,true],"shareblock_featuresmall":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-450x450.jpg",450,450,true],"shareblock_justify_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x13.jpg",20,13,true],"shareblock_small_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x20.jpg",20,20,true],"shareblock_largeslider_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x13.jpg",20,13,true],"shareblock_featurelarge_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x13.jpg",20,13,true],"shareblock_slidergrid_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x14.jpg",20,14,true],"shareblock_midlarge_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x16.jpg",20,16,true],"shareblock_featurelist_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x15.jpg",20,15,true],"shareblock_featuresmall_sload":["https:\/\/topat10.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/AMOC_Laerke_009-20x20.jpg",20,20,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Sandra Upson","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=535"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"What triggered the jumps? As Broecker guessed in the late \u201980s and (after 30-some years of debate) many scientists now agree: abrupt, dramatic changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. That the climate could change violently had huge implications. As more carbon was being released into the atmosphere, Broecker and other scientists were getting increasingly&hellip;","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/535"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12032\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}