{"id":10740,"date":"2024-04-27T14:50:53","date_gmt":"2024-04-27T14:50:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=10740"},"modified":"2024-04-27T14:50:53","modified_gmt":"2024-04-27T14:50:53","slug":"top-tech-cfo-says-ai-is-not-a-blip-or-hype-its-the-biggest-disruption-in-the-industrys-history-and-his-numbers-back-that-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?p=10740","title":{"rendered":"Top tech CFO says AI is not a \u2018blip or hype,\u2019 it\u2019s the \u2018biggest disruption\u2019 in the industry\u2019s history\u2014and his numbers back that up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There\u2019s a common narrative in the investment community that says the people who really made money during the gold rush weren\u2019t the miners\u2014but the entrepreneurs who sold miners the picks and shovels they needed to prospect. Investors who recount this tale often point to the story of California\u2019s first millionaire, a businessman and newspaper publisher named\u200b\u200b Samuel Brannan, who made the bulk of his fortune selling equipment and provisions to gold miners at a premium in the 1840s and \u201850s. Some will even bring up Levi Strauss<\/a>, the German-born businessman who imported fine goods into San Francisco\u2014including, of course, blue jeans. Strauss never spent a minute mining, but was certainly rewarded by the profits that came with the gold fever of his era.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

This \u2018picks and shovels\u2019 narrative undoubtedly has merit, and continues to inform investors\u2019 decisions during modern day, more tech-focused \u2018gold rushes\u2019\u2014but it\u2019s also only part of the story. Although the first to profit from the gold rush were a few lucky miners and those who sold them provisions and equipment, the full impact of the boom of that era was widespread, and the profits were distributed globally. The gold rush helped finance<\/a> the first transcontinental railroad, led to a \u201cgreen gold<\/a>\u201d farming boom in California, accelerated industrialization, increased international trade, and spawned transportation and communication innovations<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The point is this: the true mark of a revolutionary discovery<\/a> or innovation\u2014a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors and the global economy\u2014is often its long-term network effects; positive secondary and tertiary impacts that come after the pick and shovel sellers have already made their money. This was true in the canal boom<\/a> of the 18th century, and during the dot-com era<\/a> of the late \u201890s and early 2000s.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With this decade\u2019s artificial-intelligence boom drawing comparisons with the gold rush, investors have been looking for evidence of these network effects for years as they try to separate hype from reality<\/a>. Plenty of respectable studies<\/a> and forecasts predict that\u00a0AI can boost productivity, usher in an age of innovation, and even increase GDP over the long-term\u2014but so far, only a few companies have really profited from the AI boom.<\/p>\n

Tech giants like Nvidia<\/a> and ASML that sell the picks and shovels of the AI revolution, the underlying technology that allows AI to operate, continue to outperform and seem on track to continue doing so. But on-the-ground evidence of AI\u2019s supposed productivity-enhancing and economy-boosting impacts outside of these giants has been more subtle.<\/p>\n

SAP<\/a> SE could be one example of AI\u2019s growing prominence, however. The Walldorff, Germany-based tech giant, which has roughly 108,000 employees and a market cap of $225 billion, is the world\u2019s leading provider of enterprise resource planning (ERP) software, essentially providing the back office engine for large businesses.<\/p>\n

SAP\u2019s ERP software, which is increasingly moving to the cloud, helps with supply chain management, accounting, human resources, expenses, and a number of other business operations. And as Ruane Cunniff LP, the investment advisor and distributor of Sequoia Fund, a major investor in SAP, explained in its annual letter<\/a> to shareholders in January, \u201cfor multinational enterprises that make or move something in the physical world, SAP is just about the only game in town.\u201d<\/p>\n

Although SAP isn\u2019t an AI company, and they aren\u2019t selling picks and shovels that enable AI, they are benefiting from the rise of the technology, both indirectly and directly. In an interview with Fortune<\/em>, SAP CFO\u2019s Dominik Asam explained that the AI boom has helped drive growth at his company, and said he\u2019s dedicated to using the technology to enhance productivity and cut costs in-house moving forward.\u00a0<\/p>\n

When it comes to the questions over hype versus reality when it comes to AI, Asam is bullish too. \u201cThis is not like a blip or hype, but really one of the biggest, if not the biggest disruption in the technology industry,\u201d he told Fortune.<\/em><\/p>\n

An SAP case study: The incremental gains and potential pitfalls of AI<\/h2>\n

Cementing the cloud transition<\/h3>\n

The first network benefit that can be seen at SAP which may provide evidence of the staying power of the AI boom is corporations\u2019 transition to the cloud for ERP services. Asam said that AI has helped SAP transition many of its ERP customers from on-premises computing to cloud-based computing, which means considerable demand for the company\u2019s cloud business.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cAI is really converting the last skeptics we had from the journey from on-[premises] to cloud,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em>. \u201cThey understand we have to go to the cloud, they know that the on-prem model doesn\u2019t work, given the velocity of innovation. They will be too slow, they will not be able to consume the most productive systems.\u201d<\/p>\n

The rapid pace of advancement in AI systems for ERP means companies need to be able to continually update their internal software, and that can\u2019t be done on-site without serious costs, Asam said. In an interview with Fortune<\/em>, UBS analyst Michael Briest backed up the idea that AI has been a \u201ccatalyst for the modernization\u201d of many companies\u2019 ERP software, benefitting SAP\u2019s cloud ERP business. And SAP\u2019s April 22 earnings report showed cloud revenue growth of 24% in the first quarter, and current cloud backlog (CCB) growth of 27%, the fastest on record. The CCB growth figure represents cloud revenue for the upcoming year for which clients have already signed contracts, and it is seen as a measure of underlying demand by analysts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

New revenue opportunities<\/h3>\n

Although SAP isn\u2019t a pure AI play, like many tech companies these days it\u2019s added AI services to bolster revenues and keep customers from jumping to the competition. CEO Christian Klein announced SAP would invest $1.1 billion<\/a> on its Business AI unit in January as a part of a business restructuring and offer more AI solutions for customers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The company now provides a range of AI products that can help with everything from the automation of tasks to tracking sales performance, customer insights, and more. SAP\u2019s AI offerings will also help different lines of business\u2014accounting and human resources, for example\u2014better communicate to eliminate errors in operations like hiring, payroll, or employee retirements, according to Asam. \u201cFor instance, if an employee is leaving the company, you have to ensure that all access rights in the finance systems are automatically deleted, because otherwise you have a control failure and the auditor will come and say, \u2018That guy could have manipulated the data,\u2019\u201d he explained, arguing AI will help prevent these issues. SAP even offers an \u201cAI co-pilot\u201d called Joule that will help sort through and explain data across its various applications.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Asam argued that SAP\u2019s customers\u2014which, for reference, generate 87% of total global commerce<\/a>\u2014would need huge amounts of data in order to train AI models properly, and only a few key firms can provide that. But SAP has the consent of the \u201clion\u2019s share\u201d of its customers to use their data to train AI models, and that gives them a big opportunity to provide AI services in their software, according to the CFO.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Still, SAP doesn\u2019t yet break out its AI revenues into their own category, and its current AI offerings may not dramatically contribute to the top line in the near-term. UBS\u2019 Briest argued that the Business AI unit is \u201ca genuine opportunity,\u201d but probably only for an \u201cincremental\u201d revenue increase in the near-term.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIn my view today, this is more about pulling along the cloud migration. And of course, it helps customers decide to modernize. But is it a separate revenue item? We\u2019ll see. I think more evidence is required,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Long-term, however, Asam is bullish about AI\u2019s potential to lift SAP. \u201cWe are developing these [AI] processes as we speak. We have about 30 use cases now\u2026another 100 will be developed for general market introduction throughout the end of this year. And overtime, we will ramp that,\u201d he said. \u201cSo this will take some time until you will really see it inflect. But when it inflects, it can be very big.\u201d<\/p>\n

Productivity gains and margin expansion<\/h3>\n

SAP is also implementing AI internally in order to save costs and increase worker productivity, and those efforts were ramped up after its restructuring announcement. Asam said the ultimate goal is to use AI to help with \u201cdecoupling cost growth from growth in revenues\u201d in coming years, becoming more productive without dramatically increasing employee headcount. \u201cIn some areas, we are replacing, frankly, human processing power with machine processing power, which is actually more scalable if you don\u2019t have the kind of significant inflation increase every year,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Take the example of the travel and expense management service SAP Concur, where SAP has implemented an AI system that responds to expense requests. \u201cThat engine is basically replicating or replacing the work of what formerly has been done [by humans], where some people have been checking the travel and expense claims against the rules,\u201d Asam explained.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Employees currently make up 69% of SAP\u2019s cost base, so a reduction in related costs due to AI could be beneficial. SAP\u2019s CEO Christian Klein also highlighted multiple opportunities for using AI to save \u201ctriple digit millions\u201d internally in the firm\u2019s quarterly earnings call.<\/p>\n

UBS\u2019 Briest noted that AI\u2019s ability to reduce labor costs could end up being important for the entire software industry as well. \u201cWhen you look at the software industry, half the revenue pretty much walks out the door in salaries every night. That\u2019s high relative to capital intensive industries as a percentage of revenue. And a lot of the talent is in these roles, sales, development, finance, and accounting, which will be transformed,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For SAP, Briest argued that some of the labor cost reduction \u201cwill accrue to the bottom line because they have a very sticky product\u201d\u2014meaning customers are unlikely to transition to a competitor due to associated costs.<\/p>\n

AI\u2019s true impact on earnings is still to come<\/h2>\n

SAP\u2019s recent performance and future plans provide evidence of AI\u2019s ability to boost corporate revenues, reduce costs<\/a>, and enhance productivity, but the true inflection point for the technology may still lie ahead. For SAP, UBS\u2019 Briest warned that \u201ccompetitors won\u2019t stand still\u201d as AI revenues rise. \u201cThere\u2019s a wave of innovation, and startups will be attracted to your high profitability,\u201d he said. \u201cA lot of it will get competed away over time.\u201d<\/p>\n

But while that may not be great news for SAP, it is \u201cprobably good for the global economy,\u201d Briest said. After all, more competition typically brings innovation, lower costs, and improved productivity.<\/p>\n

Also, while there is already evidence of both direct and indirect positive impacts on SAP\u2019s business, even Asam told Fortune<\/em> that it will take more time for AI to boost earnings numbers in the way many eager investors are anticipating. Even when AI is driving hundreds of millions of dollars of savings or revenue growth, it would only amount to a tiny change to SAP\u2019s bottom line, given the company\u2019s size. <\/p>\n

He expects AI\u2019s impact, like many revolutions, won\u2019t be felt too dramatically for some time\u2014but then all at once. \u201cThings are actually inflecting to something much bigger than what people ever thought,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Asam compared the rise of AI to the dot-com bubble, where investor enthusiasm for the internet drove some unprofitable tech stocks to insane heights before a crash, but ultimately the internet delivered the goods. \u201cToday, that ecosystem is worth multiples of what people thought it would be worth back then. So I think this [AI] will follow a similar pattern,\u201d Asam said. \u201cThis is why we at SAP are really fully betting on that.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a common narrative in the investment community that says the people who really made money during the gold rush weren\u2019t the miners\u2014but the entrepreneurs who sold miners the picks and shovels they needed to prospect. 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Daniel","author_link":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/?author=248"},"uagb_comment_info":1,"uagb_excerpt":"There\u2019s a common narrative in the investment community that says the people who really made money during the gold rush weren\u2019t the miners\u2014but the entrepreneurs who sold miners the picks and shovels they needed to prospect. Investors who recount this tale often point to the story of California\u2019s first millionaire, a businessman and newspaper publisher…","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/248"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topat10.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}